Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, said Bitcoin may be starting to trade less like a high-beta risk asset after spending much of the past year moving in step with AI-fueled gains across risk markets. According to the figures he cited, Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has dropped from above 60% to about 33%, while its correlation with gold has climbed from slightly above zero at the start of the year to more than 50%.
Grayscale said the shift may signal renewed investor focus on Bitcoin’s scarcity, monetary independence, and role as a store of value. Pandl made the comments as U.S. federal debt recently surpassed $40 trillion, with persistent fiscal deficits and rising long-term Treasury yields drawing attention back to assets that may hedge against deterioration in fiscal and monetary fundamentals. He also said Bitcoin has no central issuer, a transparent issuance schedule, and a fixed maximum supply of 21 million coins. In that setting, he said, Bitcoin could serve as a scarce and more liquid alternative to gold, while Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be entering a more favorable market phase.
Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said Bitcoin may be moving away from the high-beta trading pattern that defined much of the past year, when AI-driven enthusiasm pushed risk assets higher.
He said Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 has fallen from above 60% to about 33%. Over the same period, its correlation with gold rose from slightly above zero at the start of the year to more than 50%.
How Grayscale reads the shift
Grayscale said the change may indicate that investors are refocusing on Bitcoin’s scarcity, monetary independence, and store-of-value function.
At the same time, U.S. federal debt recently crossed $40 trillion. Persistent fiscal deficits and rising yields on long-dated U.S. Treasuries have pushed investors to pay closer attention to assets that may hedge against weakening fiscal and monetary fundamentals.
Pandl’s case for Bitcoin
Pandl said Bitcoin has no central issuer, its issuance rules are transparent, and its maximum supply is fixed at 21 million coins.
In an environment where the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies is being reassessed, he said Bitcoin could act as a scarce and relatively liquid alternative to gold. He added that Bitcoin and other scarce digital assets may be entering a more favorable phase of the market cycle.
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