Grayscale research head Zach Pandl said Bitcoin’s rebound to about $76,000 has pushed buyers from the past one to three months back to around breakeven. In his view, that shift matters: when short-term holders move from unrealized losses to flat or positive positions, it often appears near the opening stage of a bull market.
Realized price points to improving holder positioning
In a report published on April 22, Pandl said analysts can use on-chain data to track how market cost basis is distributed across different groups of holders. One of the main metrics is Realized Price, which reflects the weighted average price of Bitcoin when coins last moved on-chain. It is commonly used to estimate what investors actually paid for their holdings.
According to Grayscale’s data, Bitcoin transacted over the past one to three months carries a realized price of roughly $74,000. With spot price rising above $76,000, those recent buyers have largely recovered from paper losses and moved back to breakeven. The gap is not large, but the signal is clear.
Recent buyers turning profitable is watched as an early bull-market marker
Pandl said that if Bitcoin continues to rise over the next few days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL. That would matter for market structure. Short-term holders who are no longer trapped at a loss tend to create less forced selling pressure, which can leave price action more stable than it was during a drawn-out consolidation.
Grayscale framed this transition as a constructive sign rather than a final conclusion about the cycle. The report’s focus is narrow: when recent entrants stop sitting on broad unrealized losses, the market often finds it easier to hold support and build a stronger base.
Grayscale places the support zone between $65,000 and $70,000
Based on that on-chain shift, Pandl said Bitcoin has established a durable bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range after several months of choppy trading. That zone, in Grayscale’s reading, has now developed into a meaningful support band.
The report also noted that Bitcoin remains well below the all-time high set in October last year. Even so, the recovery in recent holder cost basis is being treated as a clear sign that market conditions have improved. Grayscale’s argument is straightforward: first the floor gets confirmed, then the next stage can begin.