Digital asset manager Grayscale Research has flagged a potential turning point for bitcoin markets, pointing to on-chain data that may indicate a durable bottom is in place. As the cryptocurrency recovers from a sharp early-February decline, the average cost basis of recent buyers has converged with spot prices, a condition often associated with reduced selling pressure and improved market stability.
Grayscale: Recent Buyers Return to Breakeven at ~$74K
Grayscale Research stated on social media platform X: “Grayscale Research believes BTC’s blockchain data could signal a durable market bottom has occurred.” The firm added: “$BTC has rallied nearly 20% since February 5th. Recent buyers are back at breakeven around ~$74K.” These remarks align with market behavior as bitcoin recovered from earlier weakness and approached the average cost basis of recent participants, reducing unrealized losses and easing potential sell pressure.
On April 21, bitcoin traded at $75,577, remaining near the upper boundary of a recent recovery range after rebounding from a sharp early-February decline. The price stabilized following a steep selloff that briefly pushed BTC into the lower $60,000s. Since then, bitcoin has advanced to $78,772 as of this writing, indicating strengthening resilience.
On-Chain Cost Basis Metrics Support Bottom Formation
Chart data shared by Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl showed bitcoin declining to roughly $63,000 in early February before rebounding to around $76,000 by April. The realized price for coins transferred within one to three months followed a different path, rising through much of 2025, peaking above $110,000 around late 2025, then trending downward into 2026 toward approximately $74,000. This downward adjustment in realized price, alongside recovering spot levels, brought the two metrics into alignment. The convergence indicates that recent buyers have returned to breakeven, a condition often associated with stabilizing market behavior and reduced forced selling.
Pandl explained: “If bitcoin’s price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market.” He added: “Bitcoin’s price is still well below its October highs, but many recent buyers are back to breakeven—potentially signaling that bitcoin has put in a durable market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range.”
Bullish Outlook: Cost Basis Alignment Strengthens Support
These observations underscore how on-chain cost basis metrics can help identify transitions in market cycles while supporting a constructive outlook. When spot prices converge with the realized price of recent holders, it often signals that market sentiment has bottomed, as new buyers are no longer underwater. This reduces the incentive for panic selling. Grayscale’s research further suggests that if bitcoin can hold above $78,000 and potentially break $80,000 in the coming days, it could confirm the early stage of a new bull cycle.
However, analysts caution that macro risks—including regulatory uncertainty and shifting economic data—remain. Nevertheless, the alignment of cost bases provides a layer of structural support, leaving traders cautiously optimistic about the near-term trajectory.