Bitcoin markets are showing signs of a potential bottom as improving price action brings recent buyers back to breakeven. Grayscale points to strengthening positioning as a key signal that sentiment may be shifting toward more bullish conditions.
On April 21, digital asset manager Grayscale signaled a potential turning point in bitcoin markets, citing on-chain data that may indicate a durable bottom. The firm pointed to strengthening price performance and improved investor positioning as early signs of a shift toward bullish conditions. Grayscale Research stated on social media platform X: “Grayscale Research believes Bitcoin’s blockchain data could signal a durable market bottom has occurred.” The firm added: “$BTC has rallied nearly 20% since February 5th. Recent buyers are back at breakeven around ~$74K.” These remarks align with market behavior as bitcoin recovered from earlier weakness and approached the average cost basis of recent participants, reducing unrealized losses and easing potential sell pressure.
Breakeven Alignment and Market Structure
On April 21, bitcoin traded at $75,577, remaining near the upper boundary of a recent recovery range after rebounding from a sharp early-February decline. The price stabilized following a steep selloff that briefly pushed BTC into the lower $60,000s. Recent candlesticks indicate modest consolidation just below resistance near $78,000. The broader short-term structure suggests strengthening resilience, with buyers consistently defending higher lows. Since then, BTC has advanced to $78,772 as of this writing.
Chart data shared by Grayscale Head of Research Zach Pandl showed bitcoin declining to roughly $63,000 in early February before rebounding to around $76,000 by April. The realized price for coins transferred within one to three months followed a different path, rising through much of 2025, peaking above $110,000 around late 2025, then trending downward into 2026 toward approximately $74,000. This downward adjustment in realized price, alongside recovering spot levels, brought the two metrics into alignment. The convergence indicates that recent buyers have returned to breakeven, a condition often associated with stabilizing market behavior and reduced forced selling.
Grayscale’s Take: Further Gains Could Confirm New Bull Cycle
The Grayscale head of research explained: “If bitcoin’s price rises further in the coming days, more recent buyers would move into positive PnL, which can be an indicator for marking the first phase of a bull market.” “Bitcoin’s price is still well below its October highs, but many recent buyers are back to breakeven—potentially signaling that bitcoin has put in a durable market bottom in the $65,000 to $70,000 range,” he added. These observations underscore how on-chain cost basis metrics can help identify transitions in market cycles while supporting a constructive outlook.
Additionally, Grayscale forecasts crypto will underpin the next wave of consumer finance as platforms evolve into unified ecosystems, with Elon Musk’s X potentially leveraging cryptocurrency to power new financial ecosystems. However, this part is beyond the immediate price analysis but reflects the broader bullish narrative embraced by the firm.
Overall, the breakeven alignment combined with price recovery strengthens the case for a market bottom. Should bitcoin sustainably break above the $78,000 resistance and target $80,000, the early phase of a new bull cycle would likely be confirmed, as per Grayscale’s analysis.