Greeks.live researcher Adam said renewed discussion around Strategy buying more Bitcoin would amount to a short-term catalyst rather than a change in the asset’s broader direction. In his view, Bitcoin can no longer be controlled by any single market participant, and no one is in a position to reliably predict price action. He added that Strategy would have more room to keep buying only after sitting on unrealized gains. Adam also said spot ETF flows remain negative on balance over a longer time frame, making it very difficult for Bitcoin to firmly hold above $80,000 while selling pressure stays heavy. On the macro side, he pointed to hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve and escalating conflict between the United States and Iran as factors testing already fragile investors. He also said short-term volatility has fallen quickly, one bullish daily candle alone is unlikely to sustain a bull market, and a move above $85,000 after a modest pullback would be needed to avoid stronger pressure from arbitrage traders and sellers.
According to ChainCatcher, Greeks.live researcher Adam said discussion around Strategy restarting Bitcoin purchases should be seen as a short-term stimulus, not something that changes the long-term trend.
Adam wrote that Strategy is also 「a big retail loser」 and said BTC is no longer at a stage where market manipulation is possible. He added that 「no one can predict the trend」.
Adam’s view on market direction
He said Strategy would have more room to buy only after it is already sitting on unrealized profits. Looking over a longer cycle, he said spot ETF flows are still negative overall, making it very difficult for Bitcoin to hold above $80,000, with selling pressure remaining heavy.
On the macro front, Adam said both hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve and an escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict are testing investors who are already fragile.
For the short term, he said volatility has been falling quickly and that a single bullish candle would be hard to sustain a bull market. If Bitcoin can move above $85,000 after a slight pullback, that would help. Otherwise, arbitrage traders and sellers could create substantial selling pressure.
Adam also said month-end GEX is building up and that the market needs to 「keep this momentum going」.
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