In its latest “Creator Says” feature, Foresight News compiled opinions from a wide group of market participants on a single question: where is crypto heading in the second half of 2026? The discussion included IOSG Ventures, KuCoin Ventures, Bitget Wallet, Hotcoin Research, Feixiaohao, Longye, TATAYA, and Foresight News editors Ma He and ChandlerZ. Their answers covered five major topics: market direction, favored sectors, Bitcoin treasury companies, regulatory developments, and practical advice for retail investors.
The dominant takeaway was not a clean bullish or bearish call. Instead, contributors described H2 2026 as a period of structural sorting. In their view, crypto is moving beyond broad narrative trading and into a phase where regulation, real demand, cash flow, treasury discipline, and institutional access matter more than simple token storytelling. Several participants argued that the market is no longer rewarding “theme exposure” alone; it is increasingly rewarding businesses and protocols that can demonstrate users, revenue, transparency, and resilience.
Market outlook: optimism around regulation and adoption, caution around liquidity
On the constructive side, many respondents pointed to clearer regulatory direction, stronger institutional rails, and continued adoption of stablecoins and tokenized real-world assets. IOSG Ventures Research Lead Mario said one of the most important variables is the regulatory window now opening in the United States. He noted that the CLARITY Act has entered the Senate agenda, and argued that passage would help unlock compliant institutional allocation. He also said the first half’s sharp drawdown had already reset sentiment: Bitcoin fell roughly 30% from its highs, spot Bitcoin ETFs posted their first net-outflow half since launch, and market positioning had become notably pessimistic. In that setting, he sees more room for bottom-up fundamental work.
The more cautious side of the debate centered on macro conditions. Several participants said that crypto remains a high-beta asset class, meaning it is still vulnerable to broader repricing in global risk markets. KuCoin Ventures said weakness in global liquidity, especially if it is paired with pressure on technology and AI-linked equities, could continue to weigh on digital assets. Longye similarly argued that the biggest near-term risk may not come from crypto itself, but from an AI bubble unwinding and pulling the wider risk complex lower with it.
As a result, most participants did not frame their positioning in simple terms like “all-in,” “wait-and-see,” or “sell.” The more common approach was a mix of core holdings, selective accumulation, and retained cash. Mario said his team is maintaining core exposure while adding in tranches to assets supported by genuine revenue and cash flow, and reducing exposure to purely narrative trades. Bitget Wallet also leaned toward long-term holding of projects with real users, sustainable cash generation, and clear use cases. ChandlerZ said he had started averaging into Bitcoin below $60,000, while keeping roughly half of his allocation in cash and avoiding leverage entirely.
Views on the exact bottom differed sharply. Longye said he expects the cycle low to arrive in Q4 2026, with Bitcoin likely bottoming in the “30,000 to 40,000” range. Ma He, by contrast, said he sees room for a rebound in the second half and has been buying tokens with relatively stable yield characteristics in stages. Even with this divergence, the shared baseline was similar: a long period of range-bound trading, selective rotation, and a clear split between stronger and weaker sectors remains more likely than a straight-line recovery.
Preferred sectors: stablecoins, RWA, and prediction markets lead the list
Across the four commonly discussed themes—AI plus crypto, RWA tokenization, DePIN, and prediction markets—the most consistent favorites were stablecoin and payment infrastructure, tokenized real-world assets, and prediction markets. Mario said the logic is straightforward: the industry is shifting from narrative-led valuation to revenue- and adoption-led valuation. In his view, stablecoins remain the clearest product-market fit in crypto, while tokenized U.S. Treasuries and related RWA products have already grown beyond $30 billion and could continue scaling toward the hundreds of billions.
RWA was widely seen as attractive because it links on-chain capital with off-chain income-generating assets. KuCoin Ventures said the value of RWA does not lie in putting an asset “on-chain” for its own sake. Rather, it lies in whether tokenization can improve distribution, reduce settlement friction, and give investors a clearer view of the underlying asset, legal rights, income source, redemption mechanism, and risk boundary. Feixiaohao added that in lower-volatility or declining markets, users naturally start looking for more explainable and more stable return sources. If Treasuries, private credit, commodities, and equity exposure can enter the chain through compliant structures, that significantly expands the addressable pool for on-chain capital.
Prediction markets also received strong support. Several contributors noted that 2026 offers no shortage of tradable catalysts, including the World Cup, U.S. political developments, interest-rate expectations, listed-company crypto treasury events, and competitive shifts in AI products. Feixiaohao said prediction markets are valuable not only because users can speculate on outcomes, but because they may evolve into a new mechanism for information discovery. Hotcoin Research similarly argued that platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, whose activity rose sharply around the World Cup, are showing signs of becoming real-time pricing layers for sports, politics, macro events, and corporate developments.
By contrast, respondents were more selective on AI plus crypto. The common view was that token issuance wrapped in AI branding is not a durable thesis on its own. What matters is whether AI agents actually require on-chain wallets, payment rails, identity layers, trusted data feeds, automated settlement, or execution infrastructure. Bitget Wallet said AI-driven financial interfaces could become meaningful over time, while TATAYA highlighted AI wallets as one of the most promising application areas. In that framing, the wallet becomes less of a manual tool and more of an autonomous agent layer that abstracts away RPC settings, gas management, and execution complexity.
DePIN was the area where enthusiasm was most restrained. Multiple respondents said the sector places higher demands on real supply, hardware economics, geographic density, and external paying demand than narrative-driven investors often assume. Hotcoin Research stressed that node count, coverage maps, and hardware deployment should not be confused with sustainable revenue. In its view, the core test for DePIN remains simple: are there real customers willing to pay cash for the service?
- Most favored: stablecoin payments / PayFi, RWA, prediction markets
- Cautiously constructive: AI agent infrastructure, AI wallets, settlement rails
- More selective: DePIN, due to questions around customer demand and economics
Strategy and STRC: from accumulation story to balance-sheet management
One of the most debated topics was the changing posture of Strategy and the volatility around STRC. Most respondents rejected simplistic interpretations such as “this is bearish for Bitcoin” or “the treasury model has failed.” Instead, they described the episode as evidence that Bitcoin treasury companies are entering a more mature and more complicated balance-sheet phase. Mario said Strategy had already symbolically broken its “never sell” posture in late May with a small sale of 32 BTC. By late June, he said, that transition had been formalized through the Digital Credit Capital Framework, including a 12% STRC dividend, a $2 billion buyback plan, and explicit authorization to sell BTC in order to rebuild dollar reserves.
KuCoin Ventures characterized Strategy not as a single-asset accumulation vehicle anymore, but as a complex corporate finance machine connecting Bitcoin reserves, preferred equity, debt financing, equity premium, dividend obligations, cash reserves, and market confidence. In that reading, the sharp swings in STRC reflect a deleveraging process after leverage had built up inside the structure, not a total collapse of the underlying business logic. At the same time, the firm argued that the situation is an important reminder that these instruments are not low-risk yield products and should not be treated as such without understanding their capital structure, dividend mechanics, and embedded leverage.
Several participants made the broader point that the Bitcoin treasury flywheel works well in favorable markets and becomes much more fragile in adverse ones. Hotcoin Research said Strategy’s earlier expansion model depended on a premium in MSTR, repeat access to financing, and a rising Bitcoin price. Once BTC falls, mNAV compresses, STRC trades below target value, and financing costs rise, the same mechanics that once amplified buying can begin to create pressure. TATAYA went further, saying STRC should never have been interpreted as a “safer BTC.” In his view, it is closer to a high-yield credit product issued by a Bitcoin treasury company, with returns generated by slicing and redistributing risk rather than eliminating it.
ChandlerZ offered a more cash-flow-focused explanation. He said Strategy’s digital credit framework and the authorization to sell as much as $1.25 billion in BTC reflects pressure from preferred-share dividends and interest payments. By his estimate, annual preferred dividends plus interest amount to roughly $1.76 billion in hard cash obligations. Previously, the company could rely more heavily on issuing new equity, but after declines in MSTR and STRC trading below its $100 issue price, that route became narrower. Even so, he argued Strategy is still far from a crisis scenario: total debt is about $6.75 billion, Bitcoin asset value still covers debt by roughly 10x, and the company’s convertibles do not have mandatory liquidation triggers tied directly to market moves.
On whether institutions and listed companies will accelerate crypto allocation in H2 2026, the consensus again was one of differentiation rather than a single directional call. Products and channels tied to ETFs, custody, stablecoins, payments, and RWA are expected to continue advancing. By contrast, copycat treasury companies that rely mainly on equity premium and leverage to buy Bitcoin are likely to face stricter scrutiny and, in some cases, a cooling in investor enthusiasm.
Regulation: CLARITY Act and SEC/CFTC signals seen as structurally positive
On regulation, most respondents expressed long-term optimism. Mario described the current shift as constructive and potentially transformative. He said the CLARITY Act passed the Senate Banking Committee in May by a 15-9 vote and has been placed on the full Senate agenda. He also highlighted a joint SEC-CFTC classification framework released in March that identified 16 assets as digital commodities and clarified that staking, mining, and airdrops do not constitute securities transactions. In his view, that lowers the odds of sudden enforcement shocks and creates a more predictable environment for listing, custody, and fiat on- and off-ramps.
KuCoin Ventures argued that regulatory clarity should not be judged solely by whether it makes prices rise. Its deeper significance is that it changes the rules of competition and gives platforms, issuers, brokers, and institutions a more defined set of boundaries within which to operate. Feixiaohao made a similar point, adding that clearer rules will also raise barriers to entry. Businesses that relied on ambiguity may lose room to operate, while firms with real assets, better disclosures, and more transparent governance could capture larger market share and greater investor trust.
For retail users, respondents identified several likely changes. First, access could become more mainstream. Over time, users may increasingly enter crypto not only through native exchanges, but also through brokerages, banks, payment apps, public-market accounts, and regulated stablecoin rails. Second, product segmentation is likely to become more obvious: highly compliant products may offer less explosive upside but clearer legal rights, custody arrangements, audits, and redemption terms. Third, disclosure will matter more. Investors will need to understand whether a token represents a commodity, a security, a claim, a synthetic exposure, a yield certificate, or merely internal platform accounting.
Even so, participants repeatedly warned that clearer regulation does not mean a universal rally. Hotcoin Research said the biggest beneficiaries will be projects that can clearly explain what their asset is, how revenue is generated, how governance works, and what protections exist for users. ChandlerZ added that regulation is better understood as a slow variable that affects how far the industry can go, not as a fast variable that determines next quarter’s prices. For end users, the immediate gains are more likely to show up as better experience, lower legal uncertainty, and stronger protection rather than instant profit opportunities.
Advice for retail investors: less leverage, more research, stronger filters
When summarizing the first half of 2026, many contributors returned to the same theme: narratives cooled while financial logic returned. KuCoin Ventures called it a period of narrative cooling, financial discipline, and project re-tiering. Bitget Wallet said the market has started rewarding real value rather than pure storytelling. Hotcoin Research put it most bluntly, saying the market is increasingly punishing assets that tell stories but do not produce cash flow.
For retail investors, the most repeated recommendation was to reduce leverage, preserve liquidity, and build positions gradually rather than trying to time a perfect bottom. Mario said most of the severe losses in this drawdown came from leveraged positions, not spot holders. ChandlerZ, reflecting on his own experience, said systematic shorting can appear profitable in a falling market but is mentally exhausting and often leads traders to give back gains during volatile rebounds. He said that is one reason he has returned to dollar-cost averaging into a base position instead of trying to live off directional swings.
Another recurring point was that investors need to shift their research framework away from simply asking which theme is “hot.” Feixiaohao suggested looking through to the underlying business. Is TVL organic or subsidy-driven? Is protocol revenue coming from real fees or token emissions? Are users showing genuine demand or merely farming an airdrop? If a project is in RWA, what exactly is the underlying asset and how does redemption work? If it claims to be AI plus crypto, what on-chain function is AI actually using? Hotcoin Research similarly warned against treating high APY or a sharply lower token price as evidence of safety. The first question should always be: where does the money come from, and who is bearing the risk?
Several contributors recommended separating portfolios into core allocations and experimental allocations. Core positions should be reserved for higher-conviction assets such as Bitcoin, major liquid assets, or infrastructure with visible cash-flow support. Experimental capital can then be used for emerging sectors, smaller-cap names, and new products, without putting the entire portfolio at risk. In a low-liquidity environment where narratives rotate quickly and often violently, that distinction becomes especially important.
Overall, the discussion did not produce a single market call such as “H2 will be bullish.” What it did suggest is that crypto is moving into a new phase defined by real demand, legal clarity, stronger balance-sheet scrutiny, and a more selective capital base. The old model—one dominated by halving narratives, meme reflexivity, or broad narrative inflation across every sector—appears to be fading. The assets and platforms most likely to persist through that transition are those that can show real users, recurring revenue, compliant structure, and credible risk disclosure.
Disclaimer: The views summarized above come from Foresight News’ compilation of comments by creators and industry participants. They are provided for information only and do not constitute investment advice. Crypto markets are risky, and investors should make decisions based on their own circumstances and due diligence.