Hash Global Research said Bitcoin may be moving closer to an inflection point even though price has not yet staged a clear breakout, pointing to changes in on-chain positioning, macro conditions and capital flows rather than headline price action alone.
The report was written by Jessica Feng, investment manager of Hash Global BNB Fund, and Henry Yang, investment partner and head of Hash Global Secondary Market Funds. It said the AI trade has absorbed much of the market’s attention over the past six months, while Bitcoin has faced repeated pressure since dropping below $70,000 in February. BTC has tested the $58,000-$60,000 range three times, and crypto sentiment has remained weak even as US equities kept rising and gold rebounded from its lows.
Bitcoin has traded between $62,000 and $65,000 for nearly two months, according to the report. Its 30-day implied volatility at one point fell to 36%, a multi-year low.
Hash Global said the more important development is the shift taking place beneath the surface. In its view, several forces that had been pushing the market lower are weakening one by one, including fading expectations of tighter macro conditions, easing concern over a Strategy blowup, and a halt in institutional outflows. At the same time, Bitcoin holdings on-chain are re-aggregating during the consolidation phase.
On-chain positioning points to a bottoming process
The report said BTC has tested the $60,000 level three times and found visible support on each occasion. Prices then rebounded toward $65,000, where selling pressure reappeared, leaving the market trapped again in a $63,000-$65,000 range. On the surface, little has changed. Underneath, however, Hash Global said on-chain holdings have already gone through another round of redistribution.
More than 2.4 million BTC are now concentrated between $61,000 and $65,000, equal to about 12% of circulating supply, the report said. Of that total, more than 1 million BTC are clustered around $63,000 alone, or about 5.2% of circulating supply. Hash Global described that concentration as rare by historical standards.
Rather than treating short-term price swings as the main signal, the report argued that bottoms are formed through repeated trading and handoffs. Some investors exit, others absorb supply, older holdings rotate, and new buyers establish a lower cost basis. As more BTC gathers inside a similar price band, a fresh price consensus starts to take shape.
Hash Global pointed to a similar setup in 2024. From May to November that year, Bitcoin went through roughly six months of adjustment after the ETF-driven rally. Before BTC advanced from $60,000 to $100,000, on-chain positioning had also shown a dense concentration around $50,000-$60,000. The report said history does not repeat in a simple way, but the similarity in market structure suggests the current market may be undergoing another comparable bottoming rotation.
Forces that had weighed on the market are starting to fade
Hash Global said concentrated positioning alone does not tell investors which way the market will break, even if it shows that a directional move is getting closer. What matters more, the firm wrote, is that several sources of downside pressure are losing force.
Macro pressure is easing as rate fears cool
The report said concern over higher rates was one of the most important drivers behind this round of adjustment. Geopolitical conflict lifted inflation expectations, the Federal Reserve sent hawkish signals, and stronger Treasury yields and a firmer US dollar added pressure to risk assets.
That pricing logic has started to loosen, according to Hash Global. US June CPI fell 0.4% month on month, the biggest monthly decline since April 2020. Core CPI was flat on the month and came in below market expectations. At the same time, July nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000, also weaker than expected. With inflation cooling and labor data softening, the report said the marginal shift has altered the conditions that had supported tighter pricing, reducing pressure on risk assets.
Strategy stress has eased, lowering fears of forced selling
The report said market anxiety around Strategy amplified broader fear in recent months. Some investors had argued that problems in the company’s capital structure could turn one of the cycle’s biggest buyers into a structural seller during a downturn.
Against that backdrop, STRC briefly fell to $74, while MSTR’s mNAV also dipped below 1x. But once Strategy actually began selling BTC, market sensitivity started to decline, Hash Global said. It interpreted that change as a sign that investors are reassessing the company’s approach.
So far, Strategy has sold 0.26% of its total BTC holdings, lifting cash reserves to about $4.5 billion, enough to cover roughly three years of interest payments, the report said. It also said the company has repurchased discounted STRC on a large scale, reducing debt at lower cost. Hash Global framed that process as Strategy’s third transformation, from passive holding to active capital management, aimed at breaking the negative spiral the market had feared.
The report said small-scale sales during a bear market can be used to replenish liquidity, stabilize the capital structure and preserve survival, leaving the company with enough financing capacity to restart the flywheel in the next upcycle. STRC has recently recovered to about $95, and Strategy has resumed MSTR financing, which Hash Global said has eased short-term funding pressure and reduced the risk of large forced sales.
Cooling AI trades may bring capital back toward crypto
Hash Global also said the AI sector has pulled in a meaningful share of global capital over the past six months. Compared with a crypto market that lacked a fresh narrative, AI offered investors a more visible growth story. That trade, however, has started to cool.
As valuations climbed and growth expectations became more fully priced, crowded AI positions went through a concentrated deleveraging phase in July, the report said. The Nasdaq 100 fell about 7%, while the S&P 500 was flat month on month. Crypto assets that had already been heavily sold, by contrast, began to recover. BTC rose about 6% for the month, ETH gained about 18%, and blue-chip DeFi names with stronger fundamentals outperformed. UNI climbed more than 100% in the same period.
Hash Global said crypto assets trading at lower valuations, while seeing improvement in both policy conditions and fundamentals, may return to investors’ allocation screens as capital looks for a new destination.
The market is still waiting for clearer confirmation
Even so, the report did not call an all-clear. It said marginal improvement in pressure factors does not amount to a full reversal, and it is still too early to declare that the next leg of the market has already begun.
Hash Global referred to legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller’s discussion of Teva Pharmaceutical and the idea of an “orphaned zone,” where value investors sell because of a strategic transition while growth investors stay on the sidelines because the transition is not yet complete. In that gap, the report said, a structural opportunity can emerge.
It argued that Bitcoin may now be in a similar setup. Crypto has not fully started moving yet, AI FOMO capital is still chasing what the report described as the final stretch of that trade, and long-time market participants inside crypto are still waiting for one last drop that has not arrived. Timing the start of the next move remains difficult, Hash Global said, but the market may already be entering a window for positioning ahead of the next cycle.
The report ended with a question: if the market is moving into an “orphaned zone,” are investors willing to step in before consensus catches up?