White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said on Sept. 15 that Donald Trump, along with Hassett himself, would respect whatever decision Federal Reserve Chair Warsh makes tomorrow. Market pricing currently points strongly toward a rate increase. Data from prediction market predict.fun shows an 88% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at tomorrow’s decision, versus a 12% chance of no change. Conventional market pricing is slightly more hawkish. CME FedWatch shows a 92.5% probability that the Fed will raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points at its Sept. 16 meeting, moving it from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. The probability of holding rates unchanged stands at 7.5%, while the probability of a rate cut is 0%. The remarks and market odds came ahead of the expected policy decision.
On Sept. 15, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett said that Donald Trump, along with Hassett himself, would respect whatever decision Federal Reserve Chair Warsh makes tomorrow.
Markets continue to lean heavily toward a 25 bps hike
According to data from prediction market predict.fun, traders currently assign an 88% probability to a 25 basis point rate increase tomorrow. The probability of no change stands at 12%.
Pricing from conventional channels is slightly more hawkish. CME FedWatch currently shows a 92.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by 25 basis points at its Sept. 16 meeting, lifting the federal funds target range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%. The probability of holding rates unchanged is 7.5%, and the probability of a rate cut is 0%.
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