HTX Research has released its Q3 2025 crypto market outlook report, providing an in-depth analysis of the second quarter correction. The report notes that Bitcoin fell from $82,000 to $59,000 in Q2 — a 28% decline — while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of nearly $4.9 billion. These moves, according to the report, are not rooted in crypto-native problems but are the direct result of global liquidity macro repricing.
Q2 Correction: The Dominance of Liquidity Repricing
The report reviews that the Q2 correction was primarily driven by liquidity tightening from the Federal Reserve's rate hiking expectations and a strengthening U.S. dollar. Under such macro pressure, risk assets broadly suffered, and crypto was no exception. Importantly, Bitcoin's long-term fundamentals — including network activity, hashrate, and holder composition — remained intact. HTX Research characterizes the correction as a temporary pain from shifting liquidity conditions rather than a structural reversal.
Q3 Outlook: Liquidity Improvement and Regulation as Key Variables
Looking ahead to Q3, the report pinpoints two major focus areas: first, whether global liquidity shows signs of marginal improvement, such as a Fed policy pivot or a weaker dollar; second, whether greater regulatory clarity can revive institutional risk budgeting. If both factors turn positive, institutional capital may re-enter the crypto market, supporting a price rebound. In addition, the report reveals the latest progress in the RWA (real-world asset tokenization) sector: tokenized RWA assets, excluding stablecoins, reached $32.28 billion in Q2, showing strong year-over-year growth. This indicates that despite short-term market volatility, the expansion of crypto infrastructure continues, and the on-chain migration of traditional assets is becoming a new growth engine for the industry.