Hyperliquid has launched its first prediction market on mainnet through the HIP-4 upgrade, expanding beyond its core perpetual trading business. The release went live on Saturday with limited functionality. Founder Jeff Yan later confirmed the update on Discord and said the rollout would follow a phased deployment and testing plan.
HIP-4 introduces fixed-payout outcome contracts
The key change is support for fully collateralized contracts that settle within fixed outcomes. Hyperliquid describes them as binary-style contracts that pay either 0 or 1 at expiry. The structure removes leverage from the product and, with it, liquidation risk. That makes the market closer to event trading than to margin-based derivatives.
First live market tracks a Bitcoin price condition
The first market is tied to Bitcoin’s daily price direction and settles based on whether BTC is above a preset level at a specified time. One of the early listings asked whether Bitcoin would trade above 78,213 by May 3 at 8:00 AM. The setup places event contracts inside the same system where users already trade perpetuals and spot positions.
That gives traders a way to hold directional exposure and event-based positions in one venue. It is a simple product on the surface. In practice, it lets users express a view on both price movement and a precise market condition at the same time.
Early activity is moderate as rollout continues
Initial data shows the market is active, though still early in its development. Hyperliquid posted about $59,500 in daily volume and roughly $84,600 in open interest. The “Yes” side was trading at an implied probability near 63%.
Against a similar Bitcoin market, Hyperliquid reported 89,253 units traded, while Polymarket logged 79,500 shares under its dollar-per-share model. Crypto commentator Jxck said Polymarket still has the edge in visibility and reputation, but added that combining prediction markets with perpetual trading could draw hedging activity.
Jeff Yan said curated markets will be listed first, with permissionless listings planned later. The initial focus remains short-term crypto price events. The move puts Hyperliquid into more direct competition with Polymarket and Kalshi. HIP-4 had already been tested on testnet in February, and the mainnet launch builds on Hyperliquid’s existing derivatives venue, which already offers deep liquidity and fast execution.