IEA Cuts 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast on Hormuz Disruptions, High Fuel Prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its global oil demand forecast for the current year. The agency attributes the downgrade to persistent disruptions to exports through the Strait of Hormuz and elevated fuel prices. Under the updated outlook, 2026 global oil demand is expected to decrease by 1.56 million barrels per day, putting total demand at 103.29 million barrels per day. The IEA also offered a quarterly breakdown: demand in the second quarter is set to fall by 4.9 million barrels per day year on year, while the fourth quarter is projected to return to growth, adding roughly 580,000 barrels per day. The cuts point to a year of uneven demand, with weakness concentrated in the middle quarters and a tentative recovery expected toward the end. This adjustment highlights how supply-side constraints and price-sensitive consumption continue to shape the global energy picture. The Strait of Hormuz remains a vital chokepoint for crude flows, and as long as exports stay disrupted, the outlook carries considerable uncertainty. Fuel costs at current levels also add pressure on consumers. The IEA's latest figures give a cautious read on oil market fundamentals for the remainder of the year.