According to ChainCatcher, most institutional investors remain cautious about Bitcoin and believe BTC still faces pressure from several sources. The factors cited in the survey include macroeconomic uncertainty, tighter liquidity, outflows from ETFs, and capital shifting toward areas such as AI. Against that backdrop, overall market sentiment remains defensive. Even among investors who believe the market is already close to a bottom, there is no broad expectation of a strong short-term rebound.
Finality Capital Sees a Later Bottoming Window
Finality Capital partner David Grider said the firm expects the bottom of the current cycle to arrive around the end of the third quarter of 2026 or the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2026. He also said Bitcoin is expected to form a bottom in the $45,000 to $55,000 range. This view reflects a conservative assessment among some institutions regarding both the depth and the duration of the current market adjustment.
The survey shows that most funds are currently raising cash positions, reducing directional risk exposure, and relying more on market-neutral, hedging, and derivatives-based strategies to manage volatility. Institutional capital is not focused solely on allocating to Bitcoin. Funds continue to monitor areas with stronger fundamentals, including DeFi, AI, and tokenized assets. The shift in positioning shows that risk control and portfolio flexibility remain central to current fund strategy.
Liquidity, Rates and Emerging Risks Shape Fund Positioning
Institutions broadly identified high interest rates, shrinking liquidity, geopolitical risks, and capital flows into AI and other growth sectors as the main downside risks facing the market. Some funds also listed Strategy’s leveraged financing model and developments in quantum computing as emerging risk factors in this cycle. These issues are influencing how institutions think about crypto exposure, cash levels, and trading structures.
On the year-end outlook, none of the surveyed funds gave a Bitcoin price target above $100,000. Some institutions said BTC could trade within a $40,000 to $80,000 range during the year. The survey also cited improving rate-cut expectations, a rebound in liquidity, and progress on the U.S. CLARITY Act as important catalysts for a market recovery.