Steven Schoenfeld, a 36-year veteran of the investment management industry and former head of International Equity Product Strategy at Barclays Global Investors (now Blackrock), shared his bullish outlook on the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) during a panel at the Ccdata Digital Asset Summit on Tuesday. Currently CEO of Marketvector Indexes, Schoenfeld previously managed over $70 billion in developed and emerging market stock index funds and ETFs at Barclays Global Investors, and earlier led the team at the IFC/World Bank that developed the first investable emerging market indexes.
SEC Poised for Simultaneous Approvals
Speaking on the timeline for SEC approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, Schoenfeld stated: “Two weeks ago I would have said nine to 12 months away. Sitting here today I would say it’s closer to three to six months.” He cited two key developments: the SEC’s recent decision to request public comments on spot bitcoin ETF applications instead of rejecting them outright, and the landmark Grayscale lawsuit victory, which forces the regulator to consider converting Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. “For the first time, the SEC has actually asked for comments – a marginal but significant improvement in the dialogue,” he noted.
Schoenfeld emphasized the enormous potential of the U.S. institutional market, including financial advisors and self-directed retail investors. He estimated that based on the trajectory of the gold ETF launch in 2004, spot bitcoin and ethereum ETFs could attract $150 billion to $200 billion in inflows over three years. “That’s three to four times the size of the current product set for listed bitcoin, so that will be very significant,” he said.
Industry Alignment and Political Pressure
Schoenfeld’s prediction aligns with growing consensus. JPMorgan recently stated it expects the SEC to approve multiple spot bitcoin ETFs simultaneously. A group of U.S. Congress members has urged the SEC to “immediately” approve spot bitcoin ETFs, arguing there is no basis for denial. Several analysts forecast the first approval by mid-March next year. Former SEC Chair Jay Clayton stressed in September that institutional demand for BTC is clear and that approval of spot bitcoin ETFs is “inevitable.” As the SEC navigates legal and regulatory hurdles, the industry watches for a defining moment that could reshape crypto investment access.
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