JackYi's Bottom Prediction and Core Logic
JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, recently published a tweet analyzing the current state of Bitcoin. He stated that the market is experiencing the third wave of decline since October 11, 2024, and based on wave theory and cyclical patterns, this is likely the final major correction of the bear market. He believes that July to August will form Bitcoin's ultimate bottom, representing the best buying opportunity in the next three years.
In terms of price forecasting, JackYi provided two key reference levels: from Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000, a 60% decline would bring the price to $51,000, while a 66% decline would result in $43,000. He suggests that Bitcoin may find its bottom near or within this range, but emphasizes that the exact low will depend on macro factors.
Key Variables: Fed, U.S. Stocks, and MicroStrategy
JackYi highlighted that Bitcoin's ability to bottom as expected largely hinges on external macroeconomic conditions. The market is most concerned about the Federal Reserve's stance on CPI—if inflation remains stubborn, expectations for rate cuts could be delayed or even shift toward rate hikes, causing continued corrections in U.S. stocks, which would drag Bitcoin lower. Additionally, the position of major institutional holders like MicroStrategy (MSTR) is closely watched, as their massive Bitcoin holdings could serve as a sentiment barometer.
JackYi also pointed out that historical bear market bottoms have often been accompanied by black swan events or major blow-ups (e.g., FTX and Luna in 2022). This bear cycle has not yet seen a similar 'final bomb,' so investors must remain vigilant for any unexpected negative catalysts that could delay or deepen the bottom.
Buying Opportunity and Risk Warnings
While JackYi is bullish on the July-August timeframe, he did not specify an exact entry price, emphasizing that a bottom is a zone, not a point. Combining wave theory and cyclical analysis, he believes the period could mark the start of Bitcoin's next multi-year uptrend. However, risks remain significant: if Fed policy tightens unexpectedly or U.S. stocks undergo a deep correction, the bottom range could move lower. Moreover, any regulatory crackdown or new exchange/project insolvencies could derail the buying plan.
Overall, JackYi's view represents a consensus among technical analysts that Bitcoin's bear market is in its final innings, but the ultimate bottom still needs confirmation from macro risk releases. Investors may use this perspective as a reference but must make independent decisions based on their own risk tolerance.