Market Context: Third Wave of Decline Confirmed, Characteristics of the Last Major Drop
JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, recently shared his views on social media, pointing out that Bitcoin is currently in its third wave of decline since October 11, 2025. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this is likely the last major correction in the current bear market. This judgment is based on the typical five-wave down structure seen in technical analysis, suggesting that after this third wave ends, the market will enter a bottoming zone.
Reviewing the previous two waves — from the all-time high of $126,000 — both in terms of magnitude and duration, they align with the mid-to-late stages of a bear market. JackYi emphasizes that current market sentiment is extremely bearish, a necessary condition for forming a bottom. He reminds investors that late bear markets often witness black swan events or project collapses, which have not yet occurred in this cycle, so close monitoring is required.
Bottom Price Model: $51K or $43K, Dependent on US Stocks and Fed Policy
JackYi provides specific bottom price estimates. Based on Bitcoin's ATH of $126,000, a 60% decline would put the bottom around $51,000, while a 66% decline would bring it to approximately $43,000. These levels correspond to common Fibonacci retracement levels and extreme washout zones in past bear markets. He notes that the exact bottom depends on two external factors: whether US stocks continue to correct, and whether Federal Reserve concerns about CPI lead to changes in rate cut or hike expectations.
Current market positioning around Fed policy is the core variable. If CPI comes in hot, it could strengthen rate hike expectations, drag US stocks lower, and push Bitcoin below $50,000. Conversely, if inflation eases, rate cut expectations could lift markets, making $51,000 a strong support. In addition, institutional holdings by MicroStrategy and others will affect short-term supply-demand dynamics. JackYi advises retail investors to closely watch the Fed's July-August meetings and the US earnings season reaction.
Timing and Strategy: July-August May Be the Best Opportunity in Three Years
JackYi explicitly states that July to August should be the final bottom time for Bitcoin, and also the best time to buy — possibly the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years. This aligns with historical cycle patterns: Bitcoin typically bottoms about one year after the halving event. With the halving in April 2024, the window naturally points to mid-2025. Moreover, summer months often see lower liquidity in US equities, which can accelerate final washouts, creating a golden entry point for long-term investors.
However, JackYi cautions that a bottom is a zone, not a single day. Investors should buy in tranches and control position sizes. They must also beware of black swan risks, including exchange collapses, regulatory crackdowns, or macroeconomic shocks. He suggests gradually buying spot Bitcoin in the $43,000–$51,000 range, avoiding high leverage. For those already holding, panic selling at current levels is not advised, as missing the bottom could lead to missing a sharp rebound.
Overall, JackYi's view represents a consensus among some technical analysts: Bitcoin is in its final down leg, and July-August is the critical bottom-building period. Whether the bottom materializes as expected ultimately depends on external macro conditions.