Market Context: Third Downward Wave and Cyclical Patterns
JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, shared his analysis on social media, stating that Bitcoin is experiencing its third wave of decline since October 11, 2025. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this could be the last major sell-off in the current bear market. For professional investors, identifying the bottom zone and seizing the accumulation opportunity is critical.
JackYi's Bottom Price Calculation Logic
JackYi highlights two key external factors for determining Bitcoin's bottom: U.S. stock market performance and MicroStrategy's holding behavior. The Fed's concerns over CPI data could shift expectations for rate cuts or hikes, triggering a sustained pullback in equities, which would drag down crypto markets. Additionally, past bear markets often saw black swan events or exchange defaults near the end; such events have not yet materialized this cycle and require close monitoring. Based on Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000, JackYi provides two critical bottom levels: a 60% decline to $51,000 and a 66% decline to $43,000. He stresses that regardless of the exact price, July-August should be the final bottom time window, making it the best accumulation opportunity and possibly the most worthwhile trade in the next three years.
Professional Perspective: Accumulation Strategy and Risk Notes
For professional traders, bottom zone confirmation often requires volume-price confirmation and macro risk release. JackYi's framework combines technical analysis (wave theory, cyclical patterns) with fundamental factors (Fed policy, U.S. stock correlation, black swan risk). Investors are advised to monitor upcoming CPI releases, Fed meetings, and MicroStrategy's position changes over the next two months, while staying alert to tail risks. If Bitcoin corrects into the $51,000-$43,000 range, it may represent a strategic accumulation zone.