JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, argues that Bitcoin is in its third wave of decline, the likely final major correction of the bear market based on wave theory and cyclical patterns. He warns that if US stocks continue to pull back due to Fed policy shifts on CPI, plus potential black-swan events typical near bear market ends, Bitcoin could drop to $51,000 or $43,000. He identifies July–August as the most likely bottom window and the best buying opportunity in three years.
Decline Phase and Wave Theory
JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, posted that Bitcoin's current decline represents the third wave since October 11. Based on Elliott Wave theory and historical cycles, this is likely the final major sell-off of the bear market. He notes that previous bear-market tails often featured sudden black-swan events or exchange collapses, but none have materialized yet, advising traders to watch closely.
Price Range and Key Drivers
The bottom depends largely on US equities and MicroStrategy's BTC holdings. If the Fed adjusts rate-cut/rate-hike expectations due to sticky CPI, further equity drawdowns could drag Bitcoin lower. From the all-time high of $126,000, a 60% correction yields $51,000; a 66% correction yields $43,000. Regardless of the exact bottom, JackYi believes July–August will mark the final bottoming window and the best entry opportunity, possibly the most attractive setup in three years.
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