Market Context: Bitcoin in Third Downward Wave
JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, tweeted that the current decline marks the third wave of Bitcoin's correction since October 11. Based on wave theory and cyclical patterns, he believes this could be the last major drop of this bear market. Market sentiment remains bearish, with investors focused on identifying the ultimate bottom price.
Key Analysis: US Stocks, MicroStrategy, and Fed Policy as Determining Factors
According to JackYi, Bitcoin's bottom price largely depends on the performance of US equities and MicroStrategy's holdings. If the Federal Reserve's concerns over CPI lead to changes in interest rate cut or hike expectations, it could trigger a sustained pullback in US stocks, dragging Bitcoin lower. Additionally, bear market tails often feature black swan events or project implosions, which have not yet occurred in this cycle, warranting close monitoring.
Price Projections: 60%-66% Drawdown to $43,000-$51,000
Using Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000, JackYi estimates two scenarios: a 60% decline would bring the price to approximately $51,000, while a 66% decline would land around $43,000. He states that regardless of the exact level, July-August should mark the final bottom window, presenting the best buying opportunity in the next three years.
Conclusion and Risk Considerations
While JackYi provides a specific timeline and price range, market outcomes depend on multiple variables including macroeconomic policy, institutional behavior, and unforeseen black swan events. Investors should assess their own risk tolerance and avoid impulsive decisions based on single forecasts.