Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said Bitcoin may be moving into the later phase of the current bear market, though he stressed that the downturn is not over. According to Coutts, BTC is down about 50% from its all-time high of $126,100 set in October 2025, and the market still shows clearly bearish trend readings. He described the current setup as a “typical bear market,” while noting that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared with the previous cycle, suggesting this drawdown may be less severe than earlier bear phases. Coutts also said longer-term momentum indicators are starting to show bullish divergence, which points to slowing negative momentum, but he did not treat that as technical confirmation that Bitcoin has exited the bear market. He linked the earlier decline to tighter global liquidity and weaker on-chain demand. On long-term price targets, Coutts said he is cautious about calls for Bitcoin to hit $1 million by 2030. Instead, he said he is more comfortable projecting BTC at $200,000 to $250,000 over the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to address the potential threat of quantum computing more clearly before 2027, given that major protocol upgrades can take about five years.
Coutts says Bitcoin may be entering the later phase of the bear market
According to BlockBeats on July 11, Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said Bitcoin may be moving into the late stage of the current bear market. He said the bear market has not ended, but downside momentum has started to ease.
Coutts described the current price action as a “typical bear market.” He said BTC is down about 50% from its all-time high of $126,100 reached in October 2025.
Volatility has fallen, but trend indicators remain bearish
He said Bitcoin’s volatility is down roughly 50% from the previous cycle, which could mean this decline will be less severe than past bear markets. At the same time, he cautioned that all current trend indicators still point clearly to the bearish side, and the market will not simply repeat past cycles.
Coutts also said longer-term momentum indicators are beginning to show bullish divergence. In his view, that suggests negative momentum is slowing. Still, he said that does not mean Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market.
Drivers behind the decline and his price view
Beyond tighter global liquidity, Coutts said worsening on-chain demand was also an important reason behind Bitcoin’s earlier decline.
On long-term price forecasts, he said he is cautious about the idea of Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. He said he is more comfortable forecasting BTC at $200,000 to $250,000 over the next two to three years.
Quantum risk needs a clearer response before 2027
He also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to respond more clearly to the potential threat from quantum computing before 2027, as major protocol upgrades may take about five years.
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