Jamie Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, said Bitcoin may be moving into the later phase of the current bear market, though he stressed that the downturn is not over. According to Coutts, BTC is down about 50% from its all-time high of $126,100 set in October 2025, and the market structure still fits what he described as a “typical bear market.” He added that Bitcoin’s volatility has fallen by roughly 50% compared with the previous cycle, suggesting this drawdown may be less severe than past bear markets.
Coutts also said longer-term momentum indicators are starting to show bullish divergence, which points to slowing negative momentum rather than a confirmed technical exit from the bear market. He cited tighter global liquidity and worsening on-chain demand as key reasons behind Bitcoin’s earlier decline. On long-term targets, Coutts said he is cautious about calls for Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2030. Instead, he said he would be more comfortable projecting BTC at $200,000 to $250,000 over the next two to three years. He also warned that the Bitcoin community should address the potential threat from quantum computing more clearly before 2027, noting that major protocol upgrades can take around five years.
Bitcoin may be in the later innings of the bear market
According to ChainCatcher, Real Vision chief crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said Bitcoin may be entering the later stage of the current bear market. He said the bear market has not ended, but downside momentum has started to fade.
BTC is currently down about 50% from its all-time high of $126,100 reached in October 2025. Coutts described the current move as a “typical bear market.”
Volatility has dropped, but trend signals remain bearish
Coutts said Bitcoin’s volatility is down about 50% from the previous cycle. In his view, that could mean this decline will not be as severe as earlier bear markets. Even so, he warned that all trend indicators still lean clearly bearish, and the market is unlikely to follow past cycles in a mechanical way.
He also said longer-term momentum indicators are beginning to show bullish divergence. That suggests negative momentum is slowing, but it does not mean Bitcoin has technically exited the bear market.
What drove the selloff and how he sees price targets
Coutts said tighter global liquidity was one major reason behind Bitcoin’s earlier decline. He also pointed to worsening on-chain demand.
On long-term price forecasts, he said he is cautious about Bitcoin reaching $1 million by 2030. He said he would rather forecast BTC rising to $200,000 to $250,000 over the next two to three years.
Quantum computing warning
Coutts also warned that the Bitcoin community needs to respond more clearly to the potential threat of quantum computing before 2027, as major protocol upgrades can take around five years.
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