Japan on Aug. 4 released its 2026 Defense White Paper, labeling China’s military posture the country’s “greatest strategic challenge” and warning that the People’s Liberation Army has upgraded its long-range operational capabilities across the board. The document also links defense investment with economic growth, a relatively unusual framing that could support the Takashi government’s planned security strategy revisions later this year and any push for higher military spending.
White paper flags Taiwan Strait tensions and PLA naval reach
The white paper says the PLA’s area of activity in the Pacific continues to expand. It points to more frequent Pacific deployments by the aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong. On Chinese military drills around Taiwan, Japan’s assessment is that Beijing is using regularized exercises to advance operational preparation for Taiwan-related contingencies, raising the risk of further tension in the Taiwan Strait.
The document also expresses serious concern over joint China-Russia patrols and Russia-North Korea military cooperation. It says North Korea could seek missile and nuclear technology upgrades by supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine.
New chapter focuses on drone warfare and AI
A new chapter in the white paper examines “new forms of warfare.” It discusses combat patterns seen in the Russia-Ukraine war, where large volumes of low-cost drones have been used alongside conventional missiles in coordinated attacks. Japan plans large-scale investment in low-cost drones and artificial intelligence, or AI, to strengthen future frontline combat capabilities.
Defense industry framed as an engine of growth
According to briefing materials from Japan’s Ministry of Defense, the government plans to support advanced technology startups and encourage the use of more commercial components in weapons production. The goal is to build the defense industry into an engine for economic growth and social prosperity. That argument aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takashi’s policy line of using strategic fiscal spending to drive growth.
Defense spending has reached 2% of GDP, but funding questions remain
Japan has already pieced together funding through tax increases and spending reforms as it pushes the biggest military buildup since World War II. Defense-related spending has reached 2% of gross domestic product, or GDP.
At the same time, the report says the government has not clearly explained where funding for any additional military expansion would come from, especially as Japan’s fiscal position remains strained. By once again identifying China as the top threat, the latest white paper is also expected to keep shaping the direction of bilateral ties.