Strict gambling regulations in Japan have long suppressed prediction markets, but a wave of startups is finding a clever loophole through points-based systems. Miraima, a platform founded by Gen Z entrepreneurs, allows users to bet on real-world events (such as sports, elections) and win points that can be exchanged for gift cards and other cash-equivalent rewards. Since its launch in November 2025, Miraima has amassed nearly 1 million monthly active users, with major events like the recent World Cup driving adoption.
Points System: A Compliance Workaround
Japan's Criminal Code (Article 185) prohibits gambling with monetary stakes, but points redeemable for non-cash prizes (e.g., gift cards, merchandise) typically fall outside the legal definition of gambling. Miraima exploits this gray zone: users wager 'prediction points' that can later be converted into electronic gift cards from Amazon, convenience stores, etc. Since gift cards have secondary market liquidity (can be resold for cash), the system effectively involves monetary flow but carries lower legal risk. This model borrows from Japan's traditional 'keihin' (prize) scheme, where businesses offer rewards instead of direct cash payouts.
Notably, Miraima does not label itself as a 'gambling platform' or 'prediction market' but rather as an 'entertainment prediction game,' and its terms explicitly forbid cash withdrawals. Even so, regulators (e.g., the National Police Agency) are likely monitoring whether this model crosses the line into illegal gambling.
Competitive Landscape: New Entrants Accelerate
Beyond Miraima, another startup Poyp launched a similar points-based app in early 2026. Mobile game developer Gumi Inc. also released a points-based prediction game in June 2026. All three aim to tap into Japan's massive mobile gaming and betting audience while staying on the right side of the law.
In contrast, international prediction market giants Polymarket and Kalshi have adopted a cautious stance in Japan — both block or discourage Japanese users from placing bets and have not conducted any official marketing there. However, insiders say Polymarket is optimistic about long-term prospects and has recently appointed a local representative to lead lobbying efforts for government approval. Polymarket declined to comment on its specific activities but acknowledged growing interest from Japan and the broader Asian market. Kalshi also declined to comment. This suggests that once regulatory clarity emerges, the major platforms could move swiftly.
Regulatory Prospects: Can Lobbying Open the Door?
Japan's stance on online gambling is tough, but tolerance for 'skill-based contests' and 'prediction games' has increased in recent years. For example, Japan permits e-sports betting and horse racing based on 'mental and physical skills,' while strictly distinguishing 'games of chance' from 'games of skill.' The legal classification of prediction markets (especially for political and economic events) remains ambiguous. Polymarket's lobbying in Japan likely focuses on framing prediction trading as 'information trading' rather than gambling, similar to the regulatory framework the U.S. CFTC attempted to establish.
If successful, Japan could become the first major Asian economy to legally recognize prediction markets, opening the door not only for Polymarket and Kalshi but also for blockchain-based prediction protocols (e.g., Augur, Azuro) to enter. However, observers caution that Japan's decision-making process is slow, involving multiple agencies (NPA, FSA). Near-term legalization is unlikely. The points-based gray-zone model may persist as a transitional solution until regulators provide final clarity.