Rise of Points-Based Prediction Markets in Japan
A new breed of prediction markets is emerging in Japan, bypassing the country's strict anti-gambling laws through an innovative points-and-vouchers model. Miraima, a startup founded by Gen Z entrepreneurs, allows users to place bets on real-world events—ranging from sports matches to political outcomes—and earn points that can be exchanged for gift cards and other tangible rewards. Since its launch in November 2025, the platform has capitalized on the World Cup and other major sports events to reach nearly 1 million monthly active users, according to Bloomberg. The model exploits a legal gray area in Japan's Criminal Code, which prohibits cash betting but does not explicitly ban point-based rewards convertible to non-cash items.
Local Competitors Emerge, Global Players Stay Cautious
The success of Miraima has quickly attracted copycats. Competitor Poyp launched a similar application earlier this year, while Tokyo-based mobile game developer Gumi Inc. released a points-based prediction game in June. Meanwhile, global prediction market giants Polymarket and Kalshi remain on the sidelines. Both platforms currently block or discourage users in Japan from placing bets and have no official marketing activities in the country. However, Polymarket reportedly sees long-term potential in Japan and has recently hired a local representative to lead lobbying efforts aimed at securing government approval. The company declined to comment on its Japanese operations but acknowledged growing interest from Japan and the broader Asian market. Kalshi also declined to comment.
Regulatory Gray Zone and Asia Ambitions
The points-based model essentially leverages the ambiguity in Japan's Prize Display Act (景品表示法), which regulates rewards but does not equate points with cash. As long as the rewards are not directly redeemable for legal tender, they are not considered gambling. This creates a regulatory sandbox for crypto-native prediction markets to experiment with compliance. However, the rapid user growth may eventually trigger a regulatory response. Polymarket's lobbying move indicates that Japan could become a test case for legalizing prediction markets in developed Asia. If successful, similar models might be explored in South Korea, Singapore, and other markets with strict gambling laws. The sustainability of Miraima and its rivals will depend on how regulators define 'value' and whether traditional entertainment giants challenge the apps.