ChainCatcher reported that whale trader Jason Leo, known as “10 big goals first,” posted a reflection on his recent trades early this morning and said he is重新理解 discipline and risk control in trading. He said he once made about $100 million in profit in the previous cycle, but failed to stop out after the market reversed, which caused a large drawdown in those gains. In the current rally, he had been expecting Bitcoin to reach a $74,000 target and viewed the swings along the way as part of the climb. As price moved closer to that level, memories of past losses pushed him to exit early. Jason Leo said Bitcoin did reach $74,000 in the end, but he was no longer holding. He described the earlier mistake as overtrusting a trend, and the latest one as abandoning a trend too soon out of fear of repeating the same error. He concluded that the hardest part of trading is not beating the market, but escaping fixed thinking built by past experience. “If experience cannot change with the environment, it is bias; if discipline loses judgment, it is mechanical,” he wrote.
ChainCatcher says whale trader Jason Leo, known for the nickname “10 big goals first,” posted a reflection on his recent trading history early this morning and said he is rethinking discipline and risk control in trading.
Jason Leo said he made about $100 million in profit during the last cycle, but after the market reversed he did not stop out in time, and much of that profit was later drawn down. He said that experience led him to two core principles: discipline and risk.
At the start of the current rally, he was still trading with a trend-following mindset. He expected Bitcoin to reach $74,000 and treated the swings in between as part of the move higher.
As the price moved closer to that target, however, his memory of earlier losses began to affect his judgment, and he chose to exit early.
Bitcoin eventually touched $74,000, but Jason Leo said he was no longer in the position. In his view, the mistake in the previous cycle was trusting the trend too much, while the mistake this time was abandoning the trend too early because he feared repeating the same outcome.
He said the biggest challenge in trading is not beating the market, but breaking away from fixed assumptions formed by past experience. “If experience cannot change with the environment, it is bias; if discipline loses judgment, it is mechanical,” he wrote.
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