TechFlowPost reported on Aug. 25 that crypto whale watcher Jason, known as 「先定 10 个大目标」, said Strategy’s behavior was one of the main reasons he identified the area around $58,000 in Bitcoin as the bottom of the current cycle last month. In his view, Strategy was not only weighing Bitcoin’s price moves at the time, but also the likely location of the market bottom, how close the company was to a survival threshold, and how much pressure its capital structure could withstand in an extreme downturn.
Jason said Strategy’s move to break with expectations that it would only keep buying and never sell — instead adjusting its BTC and dollar reserves while optimizing its capital structure — amounted to exposing risk early on its own terms rather than being forced into action under market stress. He added that Bitcoin later dipped to $58,000 and then held around $60,000 despite negative headlines tied to hardware wallet security, which he saw as a stress test. What he is watching now, he said, is whether Strategy resumes continuous buying. If that happens, he would treat it as a high-conviction bullish signal, though not as an automatic buy trigger.
According to TechFlowPost, Jason, a crypto whale known as 「先定 10 个大目标」, said on Aug. 25 that one of the key reasons he identified the area around $58,000 in Bitcoin (BTC) as the bottom of the current cycle last month was Strategy’s behavior.
Jason said that from an operator’s perspective, Strategy was dealing with more than just BTC price swings at the time. He said the company also had to assess where the market bottom might be, how close it was to a survival line, and how much strain its capital structure could take in an extreme drawdown.
In his view, Strategy broke the market’s expectation that it would only buy and never sell, then began adjusting its BTC and U.S. dollar reserves while optimizing its capital structure. Jason said that could be seen as a proactive decision to surface risk early, which he considers better than being forced by the market to address those issues under extreme conditions.
He added that BTC later fell to $58,000 and then held near $60,000 despite negative pressure tied to hardware wallet security. Jason described that stretch as a stress test.
He also said this was not a piece of logic added after the fact. What he is paying closer attention to now is whether Strategy will resume continuous buying. If it does, he said, that may be treated as a bullish 「smash-the-cup」 signal.
Jason stressed that he does not see that as a direct buy button. Even so, he said it would carry significant weight in his framework, because renewed purchases made with real capital after a stress test and after clarifying the lower bound of the company’s capital structure would be worth close study.
This article was originally published by Bit.Fan. For more cryptocurrency news and market insights, visit www.bit.fan. Disclaimer:
The market information, project data, and third-party content displayed on this platform are for industry information sharing only and do not constitute any form of investment advice or return commitment.
Cryptocurrency trading carries high risks. Users should fully assess their risk tolerance and make independent decisions. All profits, losses, and legal responsibilities are borne by the users themselves.
