Whale trader "Set 10 Big Goals" (@jasonleo) said the key takeaway from Bitcoin’s latest pullback is not the size of the decline, but the fact that it has only fallen about 5% despite several macro headwinds hitting at once. In his post late on Oct. 9, he pointed to the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield nearing 5.7%, the 10-year yield at about 5.3%, rising expectations for another rate hike this year, and renewed pressure from oil prices and inflation. Even with those factors in play, BTC has not shown what he described as obvious technical damage.
He argued that price reaction is itself meaningful information. In his view, Bitcoin has previously dropped more than 10% on a single macro negative, while the current move has held up better under combined pressure, suggesting the broader uptrend still has resilience. He also compared the setup with Bitcoin’s earlier bottoming phase around $58,000, saying both periods shared a pattern of selling pressure fading after bad news had been fully absorbed. For positioning, he said he does not currently expect BTC to fall directly to $78,000 or even $74,000. He set $79,000 as the level to watch for trimming, and said a daily close below $78,000 would lead him to exit the rest of his long positions and wait for the next entry.
According to BlockBeats, whale trader "Set 10 Big Goals" (@jasonleo) said in a late-night post on Oct. 9 that the most important part of Bitcoin’s latest pullback is not the decline itself, but "why it has only fallen this much."
He said the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has approached 5.7%, while the 10-year yield is around 5.3%. At the same time, market expectations for another rate hike this year have picked up, and pressure from oil prices and inflation has returned. Even with several macro negatives arriving together, BTC has only pulled back about 5%.
Price reaction is the main signal he is watching
jasonleo said the market’s reaction to news is itself important information. In his view, Bitcoin has in the past fallen more than 10% when a single macro negative hit. This time, with several headwinds pressing at once, price has still not shown obvious damage, which he said points to resilience in the current uptrend.
Comparison with the earlier bottom near $58,000
He compared the current setup with Bitcoin’s earlier bottoming action around $58,000. He said both periods shared the feature of selling pressure easing after negative news had been fully priced in, though he added that the market is still in a strong trend at the moment.
$79,000 set as the level for trimming positions
On positioning, jasonleo said he does not currently think BTC will fall directly to $78,000 or even $74,000.
- If BTC breaks below $79,000, he will start trimming positions.
- If the daily close falls below $78,000, he will exit all remaining long positions and wait for the next entry opportunity.
- If those key levels hold, he will continue to keep his long positions.
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