Vice President JD Vance has seen his net job approval plunge 21 points in just 15 months, reaching the lowest level recorded for any vice president in modern polling history. Yet on prediction markets for the 2028 U.S. presidential election, he still holds the lead.
Approval Ratings Hit Historic Low
CNN data analyst Harry Enten highlighted the decline in a recent segment, citing polling that places Vance's net job approval at -18 as of early April 2026. A CNN/SSRS survey from late March showed 37% approval against 62% disapproval. In January 2025, the same measure sat at 41% approve, 58% disapprove. Civiqs, polling April 8, put his favorability at 37% favorable and 57% unfavorable. Enten described the early-term net rating as the lowest recorded for any vice president in modern polling.
The “most unpopular VP in U.S. history” framing carries an asterisk: historical VP polling is sparse. Former VP Dan Quayle and former VP Dick Cheney both saw unfavorables climb into the 60% range during their tenures, though not necessarily at the same stage. Former VP Kamala Harris faced similar claims. The comparison matters most as a directional signal, not a settled historical verdict.
Drivers of the Decline
The drivers behind the decline are not difficult to trace. U.S. military involvement in strikes on Iranian sites has coincided with gas prices climbing above $4 per gallon nationally and broad disapproval of the administration's handling of inflation. Some surveys show only 27% approval on inflation management. Voter dissatisfaction with cost-of-living pressures has held firm even as GDP growth projections hover around 2% and unemployment near 4.3-4.4%.
Tariffs have added to the pressure. Broad trade actions, threatened 50% tariffs on countries aiding Iran, and ongoing supply chain friction have driven consumer goods prices higher in the public mind. That perception gap is politically damaging heading into the 2026 midterms.
Coalition erosion has become visible. Voter groups that shifted toward the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024 — including Latinos, younger voters, and independents — have shown measurable pullback in 2026 polling. Non-college white voters have also softened. Vance's numbers track closely with President Trump's own approval, which has fallen to the low-to-mid 30s in several recent polls.
Prediction Market Snapshot
On Polymarket, the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election market has generated $521.6 million in total trading volume. Vance currently holds an 18.9% win probability, with more than $10.2 million in individual contract volume. California Gov. Gavin Newsom sits at 16.9% with the highest individual volume among top candidates at $14.1 million. Sen. Marco Rubio holds 9.5% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) sits at 5.5%. Long-shot volume on that platform has produced striking numbers: LeBron James and Kim Kardashian, each holding 1% odds, have generated $46.4 million and $32.8 million in trading activity respectively. Traders are clearly positioning early.
On Kalshi's 2028 market, with $28.9 million in total volume, a similar picture emerges at the top. Vance leads at 21%, Newsom follows at 17%, and Rubio sits third at 13%. On the Democratic side, Ocasio-Cortez holds 6.4%, Jon Ossoff 4.5%, Josh Shapiro 3.6%, and Kamala Harris 3.5%. The Republican bench trails: Donald Trump at 2.6%, Ron DeSantis at 1.9%, and Tucker Carlson at 1.9%. Non-traditional entries include JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith, both at 0.9%.
Vance retains strong support within the Republican base. But the broader approval numbers and the tightening gap with Newsom on both platforms reflect a position that is less comfortable than it was 15 months ago.
Looking Ahead
Polling aggregates carry margins of error, and public sentiment can shift quickly. A sound ceasefire in Iran, easing gas prices, or a break in economic anxiety could stabilize the trend line. Midterm dynamics tend to punish the party in power when pocketbook concerns dominate. The 2028 race is still two and a half years away. The betting markets are open, and the field is wide. Vance leads them both, but the margin is thinner by the day.