Vice President JD Vance has seen his net job approval rating plunge to -18 in early April 2026, according to CNN polling data analyst Harry Enten. The 21-point drop from January 2025 marks the lowest recorded net approval for any vice president in modern polling history. A CNN/SSRS survey from late March found just 37% approval against 62% disapproval. Civiqs polling on April 8 showed similar figures: 37% favorable, 57% unfavorable.
Drivers Behind the Plummet
The decline is closely tied to U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets, which pushed national gas prices above $4 per gallon and fueled broad disapproval of the administration's inflation management. Only 27% of respondents approve of how the administration is handling inflation, despite GDP growth of about 2% and unemployment near 4.3–4.4%. Tariffs—including threatened 50% levies on countries aiding Iran—and ongoing supply chain friction have further raised consumer goods prices in the public's perception, creating a damaging political gap ahead of the 2026 midterms.
Coalition erosion is also evident. Voter groups that shifted toward the Trump-Vance ticket in 2024—Latinos, younger voters, and independents—have shown measurable pullback in 2026 polling. Non-college white voters have also softened. Vance’s numbers closely track President Trump’s own approval, which has fallen to the low-to-mid 30s in recent polls from CNN, Reuters/Ipsos, and UMass.
Prediction Market Odds: Vance Still Leads, Newsom Closing Fast
On decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election market has amassed $521.6 million in total trading volume. Vance holds an 18.9% win probability, with over $10.2 million in individual contract volume. California Governor Gavin Newsom sits at 16.9% with the highest individual volume at $14.1 million. Sen. Marco Rubio (9.5%) and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (5.5%) trail. Long-shot bets have generated striking volume: LeBron James and Kim Kardashian each at 1% odds have attracted $46.4 million and $32.8 million in trading activity respectively, indicating early speculative positioning.
On regulated prediction market Kalshi, the 2028 market totals $28.9 million in volume. Vance leads at 21%, Newsom at 17%, and Rubio at 13%. On the Democratic side, Ocasio-Cortez holds 6.4%, Jon Ossoff 4.5%, Josh Shapiro 3.6%, and Kamala Harris 3.5%. Among Republicans, Donald Trump sits at 2.6%, Ron DeSantis and Tucker Carlson at 1.9% each. Non-traditional entries include JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and ESPN analyst Stephen A. Smith, both at 0.9%.
Outlook
Vance retains strong support within the Republican base, but the broader approval numbers and the tightening gap with Newsom on both platforms reflect a less comfortable political position than 15 months ago. Polling aggregates carry margins of error, and sentiment can shift quickly. A sustainable ceasefire in Iran, easing gas prices, or a break in economic anxiety could stabilize the trend line. Midterm dynamics tend to punish the party in power when pocketbook concerns dominate. The 2028 race is still two and a half years away. Betting markets are open, and the field is wide. Vance leads both platforms, but the margin is thinning by the day.