Legislative Window Tight: Only 20 Days Remain
Investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the U.S. CLARITY Act, though cleared by the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan 15-9 vote, still faces significant legislative hurdles in the full Senate. With only about 20 legislative days remaining before the August congressional recess, the Senate must complete bill consolidation, procedural votes, reconciliation with the House version, and submission to the President for signature. Jefferies warned that this tight timeline could heighten crypto market volatility in the coming weeks.
Market Expectations Decline: Polymarket Shows Probability Drop to 48%
According to prediction market Polymarket, the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has fallen from 70% in mid-May to 48%. Jefferies attributed this decline to market concerns over legislative uncertainty. Should the bill pass, it would establish a clear federal regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset managers, and exchanges to accelerate adoption of tokenized assets, custody, staking, and lending services, while also facilitating more crypto ETF launches and infrastructure IPOs. Conversely, a delay would extend regulatory uncertainty, potentially causing traditional financial institutions to slow their blockchain-related initiatives.
Impact on Crypto Stocks and Industry Competition
The report anticipates that the legislative process will continue to affect the market performance of crypto-related stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), Bullish (BLSH), along with certain crypto assets. Jefferies particularly noted that in the long term, Circle (the issuer of USDC) faces a greater challenge from competition by banks, fintech firms, and payment companies than from regulatory changes. A successful CLARITY Act would provide clearer compliance pathways for traditional institutions to enter the crypto space, potentially accelerating institutional adoption across the industry.