Jiang Zhuoer says his bearish call was wrong
BTC.TOP founder Jiang Zhuoer said on X that his earlier call on the crypto market was “way off,” and that missing the rally was mostly luck.
He said he cut over to swing trading in February, after Bitcoin’s gains narrowed, and only realized the move had started when Ether (ETH) broke above $2,000.
Ether, not Bitcoin, is now the market’s engine
Jiang said the second strong leg higher in the ETH/BTC ratio shows Ether has become the “engine” of this bull market, rather than just following Bitcoin.
He said he is now about 90% convinced the bear market is over, and expects Ether to outperform Bitcoin.
He linked the latest rally to U.S. President Donald Trump’s embrace of blockchain, which he said has helped drive tokenization and the movement of financial assets onchain in the United States.
Trades, stops and a WBETH carry strategy
Jiang also shared part of his trading record. He said he sold Ether in the $1,738 to $1,931 range, then bought it back at $2,100 after a stop was hit. Later, he sold half his spot position at $2,525 in an attempt to call a top, with a stop set at $2,550, or about 1%, and a take-profit level that moved lower with the market.
He said his arbitrage setup uses part of his Ether staked into WBETH as margin, while he opens an equal short position in the perpetual futures market, allowing him to collect staking yield and funding rates at the same time.
He added that he still holds 20% to 30% of his capital in reserve. If Bitcoin pulls back to $67,000 to $72,000, he will buy in fully; if not, he said he will enter at market by the end of October.
Strategy’s dividend move and an earlier view that did not hold up
Jiang’s earlier view on Strategy, the largest publicly listed Bitcoin treasury company, has also run into a mismatch with recent events. In June, he argued that Strategy’s debt made up only about 5% of its assets, and that even if Bitcoin fell to $30,000, its leverage ratio would rise only to around 10%, leaving the company able to keep operating without selling Bitcoin.
Over the past few months, however, STRC, Strategy’s preferred stock, has fallen well below its $100 par value, putting pressure on cash reserves. Strategy has since sold some Bitcoin for the first time since 2022 to help pay preferred dividends.
STRC is now at $96.18, but it has not fully returned to par.
ETF inflows powered the move, but the next leg is still unclear
The latest crypto rally has been driven mainly by strong ETF inflows. SoSoValue data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs took in a combined $2.6 billion last week, the largest weekly net inflow in nearly a year.
Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.9 billion of net inflows, while Ether ETFs brought in $697 million. Both set new weekly highs for 2026.
Still, according to Decrypt, CoinShares research head James Butterfill said broader conditions have improved, but large institutional buyers are not adding enough to confirm that the bull market can continue. Bitcoin would still need a clearer shift in Federal Reserve policy before it can hold above $80,000 with conviction.