JPMorgan: Bitcoin's Risk-Adjusted Profile Improves vs. Gold
JPMorgan analysts stated in a new note that Bitcoin's long-term investment case relative to gold has strengthened, even as the cryptocurrency endures one of its sharpest market pullbacks. The bank highlighted gold's strong outperformance over the past year, rising more than 60% in 2025, but noted a notable increase in volatility for the traditional safe-haven asset. This has narrowed the perceived risk gap between gold and Bitcoin. Strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out that Bitcoin's volatility relative to gold has fallen to a record low, with the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio drifting toward 1.5. Since October 2025, gold has climbed roughly a third, while BTC has fallen nearly 50% from its peak above $126,000. On a volatility-adjusted basis, JPMorgan estimates Bitcoin's market capitalization would need to rise dramatically—theoretically implying a price near $266,000—to match private sector investment levels in gold. While acknowledging such targets are unrealistic near-term, the comparison signals significant upside potential over the long run once negative sentiment fades.
Current Crash and Market Pressures
The note comes as Bitcoin's price crashed sharply Thursday, dipping to $65,000 in volatile trading, marking the largest absolute dollar drawdown on record. From October highs, BTC has retraced roughly $62,000, eclipsing prior nominal declines seen in 2018 and 2022, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data. JPMorgan also noted that BTC is now trading well below its estimated production cost of $87,000—historically seen as a soft floor. Analysts warned that sustained prices under production cost could force inefficient miners out, eventually lowering the network's marginal cost base. Despite the downturn, liquidation activity has remained modest compared with past crashes. However, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see persistent outflows: more than $3 billion exited last month, following around $2 billion in December and $7 billion in November. At the time of writing, BTC is trading near $66,000.