Retail money has rebounded from September lows and is rotating back into technology, according to a JPMorgan report dated Oct. 7, 2026. The bank said retail investors put $5.7 billion into the market over the past week, below the 12-month average of $6.7 billion, but flow data showed a clear improvement in tech demand. The percentile rank for technology ETF inflows rose from 4% four weeks earlier to 73%.
JPMorgan said retail investors were net buyers across the tech complex, with semiconductors, hardware, and software all attracting demand. Software also started to see stronger interest. In the bank’s view, whether this rotation continues will depend on how the Q3 earnings season validates current profit expectations.
Technology ETF flows rebound sharply
Of the $5.7 billion in weekly retail inflows, ETFs drew $4.7 billion and individual stocks took in $1 billion. JPMorgan said ETF inflows have bounced from September lows to around their 12-month average, while the percentile rank for single-stock inflows stood at 43%.
Technology stood out. The percentile rank for tech ETF inflows climbed from 4% four weeks ago to 73%. Demand was not limited to the Mag7 either. SNDK and MU ranked as the third- and fourth-largest retail buys last week, suggesting that flows were spreading beyond the largest technology names.
JPMorgan said retail investors were buying AI data center and electrification themes, Mag7, growth, AI software, and monetization. International ETF activity remained limited. Volatility in France and Brazil did not trigger large portfolio shifts. Across ETFs, the rebound in inflows was broad-based in broad-market, style, and fixed-income categories, with commodity and crypto ETFs the exception.
Nvidia leads retail buying with $834 million
Within the Mag7, Nvidia saw $834 million in net retail buying. Alphabet drew $265 million, Tesla $122 million, Amazon $81 million, Microsoft $34 million, and Meta $34 million. Apple was net sold by $15 million.
The top five retail buys across individual stocks were Nvidia at $834 million, Alphabet at $265 million, SNDK at $150 million, MU at $135 million, and STX at $129 million. The top five net sells were SPCX at $177 million, INTC at $148 million, MRVL at $54 million, SMCI at $51 million, and MRNA at $48 million.
By sector, technology recorded $602 million in net buying and industrials saw $143 million in net buying. Communication services, financials, healthcare, and materials all registered net selling.
JPMorgan said much of the buying in Alphabet took place on Oct. 6. On that day, Constellation Energy and Google announced a 20-year power purchase agreement tied to 890MW of new nuclear capacity, alongside a separate 15-year agreement covering 2700MW of existing nuclear generation. Earlier, Constellation Energy had signed a 20-year deal with Amazon involving 690MW at the Cliffs Clean Energy Center. Vistra rose 15% the same day after a report said the U.S. government planned to provide about $4.2 billion in loans to upgrade three nuclear plants.
Q3 earnings season starts with 31% profit growth expected
JPMorgan said the Q3 earnings season began Tuesday. Consensus forecasts call for earnings growth of 31%, or 27% excluding energy. Revenue is expected to increase 12%, or 11% excluding energy.
All sectors are expected to post faster earnings growth than in Q3 2025, with energy and technology leading and consumer staples the weakest. At the same time, FY26 estimate revisions have continued to move lower since early September.
Over the next seven days, companies representing about 5% of S&P 500 market capitalization are scheduled to report, with financials making up most of that group. JPMorgan analysts said large banks may have room for a pre-earnings rebound after recent underperformance, helped by improved net interest income expectations and potentially stronger trading revenue. Even so, the bank noted that retail investors had not yet shown meaningful buying in weaker financial ETFs or stocks this week.
Brazil trades, momentum crowding, and meme-stock setups
In Brazil, Flavio Bolsonaro finished ahead of Lula in the first round. EWZ rose 13% on Monday, and retail investors took profits, selling $6.6 million. JPMorgan strategists said the index could rise another 20% in the short term, with forward P/E potentially re-rating by about 20% to 25% to 11x. Retail investors also sold Brazilian ADRs including NU, PBR, and VALE.
Momentum remained strong in September. The top 20 momentum stocks gained about 12%, the top 30 gained 10%, and the top 100 were roughly flat. Laggards weakened further, with the bottom 100 down about 11% and the bottom 20 down about 12%. Crowding in laggards fell to 20%, from about 47% at the end of August, while large-cap crowding stood at the 84.6th percentile.
JPMorgan also highlighted meme-stock names that combined retail activity with high hedge fund short interest, including KURA, PVLA, and CABO. KURA saw $500,000 of buying last week and short interest of about 8% of float. PVLA was sold by $700,000 with short interest near 25%. CABO was sold by $100,000 with short interest around 20%. The bank said names like these can produce unexpected flow patterns when trading activity picks up.
Software targets and M&A activity add to sector focus
In software, Synopsys set a FY26 to FY30E revenue CAGR target of 15% at its investor day and projected a FY30E operating margin of about 50%, versus current FY26E guidance of about 41.5%. JPMorgan analysts said those targets imply FY30E earnings per share of about $35, which would translate into low-20% EPS CAGR. The company also announced a $1 billion buyback authorization.
On the M&A side, Schneider Electric agreed to acquire PTC for $205 per share in cash, valuing PTC’s equity at about $22.6 billion and enterprise value at about $23.7 billion. JPMorgan said that equates to roughly 21x 2027E EBITA, or 13x including all synergies. PTC rose 33% on Monday. Elsewhere, C.H. Robinson fell 11% after announcing its acquisition of RXO. JPMorgan analysts said the $300 million in net cost synergies looked credible, but negative revenue synergies remained the main concern.
JPMorgan’s overall view is that retail money has recovered from September lows and that technology has moved back to the center of retail positioning. Whether the rotation holds now depends on earnings delivery and the path of rates. With Q3 consensus earnings growth at 31%, early reports from financials, especially large banks, are likely to be one of the first tests of whether this retail reallocation has staying power.
This article is based on a summary and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a third-party brokerage report from JPMorgan dated Oct. 7, 2026, together with public market information. Ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts, and related views cited in the piece are those of the brokerage analysts and represent their institution’s position only. They do not represent the view of Chaoxiang Research and do not constitute investment advice.
Markets involve risk, and decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any security.