JPMorgan has released a report projecting a bullish scenario for Bitcoin if the U.S. Clarity Act passes by mid-2026. The bank estimates Bitcoin's long-term fair value at $266,000, based on a volatility-adjusted comparison with gold's market cap.
Why the Delay Could Be Good News
Originally expected to advance in March 2026, the Clarity Act is now seen passing mid-year due to geopolitical tensions and Congressional scheduling. JPMorgan analysts argue that unclear regulations have kept Bitcoin and the broader crypto market range-bound. Once clear rules are in place, big money from pension funds, hedge funds, and asset managers could flow in. The report also highlights that the law would reduce legal risk, accelerate real-world asset tokenization, and boost volumes for exchanges and custodians.
Bitcoin recently surged toward $67,000, breaking weeks of sideways trading. JPMorgan attributes the move to short covering, improving regulatory sentiment, and spot buying by major firms. Such price action underscores crypto's sensitivity to policy changes.
Key Provisions of the Clarity Act
The bill would split digital tokens into two categories: those under SEC jurisdiction (securities-like) and those under CFTC jurisdiction (commodities-like). The CFTC framework is considered more flexible and innovation-friendly.
- Historical use rule: Networks that are sufficiently decentralized (e.g., XRP, Solana, Dogecoin) could fall under CFTC oversight, avoiding strict securities regulations.
- Capital raising: New projects could raise up to $75 million annually without full SEC approval.
- Custody: Big banks like BNY Mellon and State Street could hold digital assets for clients, expanding institutional crypto services.
For stablecoins, the bill may define certain dollar-backed tokens as cash instruments rather than investment products. This could reduce yield-driven demand and shift activity toward tokenized bank deposits or alternatives like Ethena's USDe. Small crypto purchases would benefit from tax breaks, while miners, validators, and developers would not face broker reporting requirements during early network stages.
Geopolitical Risks Could Change Timing
JPMorgan warns that ongoing tensions in the Middle East involving the U.S., Iran, and Israel may divert Congress's attention. Defense and fiscal stability could take priority, potentially delaying the vote beyond mid-year. Investors should monitor both legislative progress in Washington and global security developments.