JPMorgan’s Aug. 3 buy-side survey suggests earnings expectations across the semiconductor group remain stronger than stock-price action has implied. ON Semiconductor is the week’s most closely watched report, and the survey also covered Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Arista (ANET), Coherent (COHR), Cisco (CSCO), Lumentum (LITE), Sandisk (SNDK) and Western Digital (WDC). Across most of those companies, average buy-side expectations for revenue, gross margin and earnings per share came in above company guidance and market consensus.
The TechFlowPost article was written by Rita and described the piece as a整理与解读, or compiled reading, of a JPMorgan report dated Aug. 3, 2026.
ON draws the sharpest divide
According to JPMorgan’s expert commentary cited in the article, sentiment around ON’s acquisition of SYNA is deeply split. Some investors argue the transaction dilutes the high-voltage data center story and conflicts with CEO Hassan’s earlier commitment to exit non-core businesses and keep the company focused on its main strategic direction.
Positioning has shifted over the past month. New long interest increased, short covering also picked up, and ON moved from net short to slightly net short. A roughly 25% pullback in the stock has been viewed by many investors as excessive.
The buy-side survey put average expectations for ON’s second quarter at $1.61 billion in revenue versus company guidance of $1.59 billion, 39.5% gross margin versus 39.0%, and $0.75 in EPS versus $0.71. For the third quarter, the average expectation was $1.70 billion in revenue versus guidance of $1.66 billion, 40.8% gross margin versus 40.3%, and $0.88 in EPS versus $0.83. For fiscal 2027, average EPS expectations were $3.57, above company guidance of $3.11.
AI remains the main focus. About 60% of respondents expect ON to modestly raise its 2026 AI revenue target from the current roughly $500 million level. Expectations ranged from a qualitative update without a specific figure to a mild increase to $550 million. JPMorgan’s view, as relayed in the article, is that expectations for ON’s AI business are very low and that the stock already reflects a large amount of pessimism. The piece also said some investors are not holding ON purely for near-term numbers, but for the possibility that it could be re-rated alongside ST and TXN.
ON’s earnings implied volatility was listed at 7.5%.
Eight more companies show buy-side estimates above guidance
JPMorgan also released survey results for eight semiconductor and hardware names.
AMAT
For AMAT, fourth-quarter buy-side averages were $9.22 billion in revenue versus company guidance of $8.95 billion, 50.5% gross margin versus 50.1%, and $3.49 in EPS versus $3.36. Average fiscal 2027 EPS expectations were $17.80, above guidance of $17.10. The article described AMAT as a core semiconductor equipment name, adding that its deposition and etch tools continue to gain share in advanced logic and DRAM.
AMD
For AMD, fourth-quarter averages were $11.72 billion in revenue versus guidance of $11.2 billion, $6.96 billion in data center revenue versus $6.55 billion, 56.5% gross margin versus 56.0%, and $1.73 in EPS versus $1.63. Average fiscal 2027 EPS expectations were $18.17, compared with company guidance of $13.66.
Arista (ANET)
For ANET, fourth-quarter averages were $2.90 billion in revenue versus guidance of $2.80 billion, $7.04 billion in deferred revenue versus $6.20 billion, and $0.92 in EPS versus $0.88. Average fiscal 2027 EPS expectations were $5.34, above guidance of $4.42.
Coherent (COHR)
For COHR, fourth-quarter averages were $2.05 billion in revenue versus guidance of $1.98 billion, 40.4% gross margin versus 40.0%, and $1.72 in EPS versus $1.62. Average fiscal 2027 EPS expectations were $11.86, compared with guidance of $8.47.
Cisco (CSCO)
For CSCO, fourth-quarter averages were $17.06 billion in revenue versus guidance of $16.80 billion, 66.2% gross margin versus 66.0%, and $1.22 in EPS versus $1.17.
Lumentum (LITE)
For LITE, first-quarter averages were $120 million in revenue versus guidance of $115 million and $3.66 in EPS versus $3.55. Average fiscal 2028 EPS expectations were $40.14, above company guidance of $33.00.
Sandisk (SNDK)
For SNDK, fourth-quarter averages were $9.58 billion in revenue versus guidance of $8.00 billion, 84.2% gross margin versus 79.9%, and $41.87 in EPS versus $34.71. Average fiscal 2027 EPS expectations were $266.77, above company guidance of $200.00.
Western Digital (WDC)
For WDC, fourth-quarter averages were $3.77 billion in revenue versus guidance of $3.65 billion, 53.7% gross margin versus 51.2%, and $3.61 in EPS versus $3.25. Average fiscal 2027 EPS expectations were $24.00, above company guidance of $18.79.
Weak stocks, but not weak earnings expectations
The central signal in JPMorgan’s survey is straightforward: buy-side earnings expectations for the semiconductor group are generally running above company guidance. In the eight-company basket, most names showed buy-side averages above management guidance midpoints across revenue, gross margin and EPS. AMAT, AMD, ANET, COHR, LITE, SNDK and WDC also showed fiscal 2027 EPS averages well above company guidance.
That stands in contrast to the tone of the secondary market. The article said an unwind in AI momentum trades during July drove a sharp pullback in semiconductor shares, but the survey indicates investors are not going into earnings with especially low expectations. Implied volatility data told a similar story. AMAT’s post-earnings one-day implied move was listed at 18%, notably above its historical average. If expectations are already elevated, the hurdle for an upside surprise also rises.
ON is the exception in one important respect. Expectations for its AI business remain especially low, its shares are already down about 25%, and the buy-side survey only points to a modest increase in the 2026 AI target. JPMorgan’s view, as presented in the article, is that this leaves more room for a positive surprise if ON delivers stronger-than-expected AI guidance.
The article also carried a disclaimer saying the ratings, price targets, earnings forecasts and related judgments cited in the piece reflect the views of the brokerage analysts and do not constitute investment advice.