Prediction markets are no longer confined to elections and sports—they are now charging into crypto derivatives. On April 21, 2026, Kalshi and Polymarket announced the launch of crypto perpetual futures, aiming at Coinbase's $2.9 billion derivatives moat.
Kalshi Moves from Event Contracts to Perpetuals
According to The Information, Kalshi plans to launch perpetual futures for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies within weeks. This marks a major shift from binary event betting to continuous financial markets with no expiry. Perpetual futures, popularized by BitMEX, use a funding rate mechanism for ongoing long-short positioning. Kalshi, with its CFTC license and new margin trading approval, could become a compliant alternative to offshore crypto derivatives platforms.
Polymarket Follows Suit, Valuation Race Escalates
Polymarket nearly simultaneously announced perpetual trading for the U.S. market. The two firms are locked in a valuation race: Kalshi raised $1 billion in March at a $22 billion valuation; Polymarket is seeking $400 million at a $15 billion valuation. Polymarket also recently teamed up with MLB. The move into perpetuals suggests event contracts have hit a ceiling, and derivatives are the bigger prize.
CFTC Chairman Backs Regulated Onshore Perpetuals
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig has publicly stated that crypto perpetual products could debut soon in the U.S., aiming to bring offshore trading volume into regulated channels. This opens a policy window for Kalshi and Polymarket. Traditional exchanges like Coinbase already offer 24/7 perpetual stock futures, Kraken offers tokenized stock perpetuals, and S&P Dow Jones has licensed S&P 500 perpetuals on Hyperliquid. Kalshi, however, holds the CFTC card, giving it a compliance edge.
Same-Day Setback: New York Sues Coinbase, Gemini for $2.2B
On the same day, New York Attorney General Letitia James sued Coinbase and Gemini in Manhattan state court, alleging their prediction market activities constitute illegal gambling, seeking $2.2 billion from Coinbase. The suit claims platforms allowed users aged 18-21 to participate, below New York's legal gambling age of 21. Kalshi was not named, but faces its own regulatory battles: lawsuits in Massachusetts, Nevada, and Arizona, with Arizona bringing 20 criminal charges. The tug-of-war between state regulators and the CFTC remains a minefield for the entire prediction market industry.
April 27 'Timeless' Reveal: Derivatives Landscape Reshaped
Kalshi has teased an event on April 27 in New York for a product called 'Timeless,' widely expected to be linked to the perpetual futures launch. The name echoes the 'no expiry' feature of perpetuals. This move blurs the line between prediction markets and crypto derivatives. For Coinbase, challengers are no longer just rival exchanges but a new breed of firms armed with CFTC compliance, soaring valuations, and federal backing. The reshaping of the derivatives landscape has only just begun.