Traders on prediction market Kalshi are betting that Bitcoin could reach $81,000 in April, with improving geopolitical conditions cited as a key driver. The outlook follows Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a development that has reduced concerns about global oil supply disruptions and helped stabilize broader market sentiment.
Calmer geopolitics support market optimism
According to the report, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has eased fears of an energy shock, removing one of the near-term risks hanging over financial markets. In that environment, Bitcoin appears to be attracting renewed attention, with traders viewing it as increasingly resilient amid shifting macro and geopolitical conditions. The cryptocurrency recently moved above $77,000, reinforcing the current bullish tone.
Prediction market signals strong upside bias
Kalshi pricing suggests traders are leaning heavily toward further gains. The report says traders currently assign a 0% probability to Bitcoin falling to $60,000 this month, underlining how firmly expectations are skewed to the upside. At the same time, around $427 million in short liquidations has added fuel to the advance, a factor that often amplifies momentum during fast-moving rallies.
Thin trading conditions may magnify moves
Even so, the market setup remains sensitive. The article notes that trading conditions are still thin, meaning relatively small orders could have an outsized impact on price action. While the prevailing bias remains bullish, such liquidity conditions can also increase short-term volatility. For traders, the next phase will likely depend on whether geopolitical calm persists and whether fresh capital continues to support Bitcoin near major price thresholds.