Prediction market platform Kalshi has released a research report titled "Hedging Sports Risk: A World Cup Case Study," saying prediction markets are starting to serve as a new tool for businesses to manage financial risks tied to sports and may reduce hedging costs compared with traditional methods.
A 2026 World Cup case study
The report uses the 2026 World Cup as its main example and says the tournament’s commercial scale has climbed to a historic high. According to the study, Fox and Telemundo paid about $1 billion for broadcast rights, companies are expected to spend about $10.5 billion on advertising, and the economic impact across the three host countries is projected at $40.9 billion. Kalshi said cumulative trading volume in its World Cup-related markets has already exceeded $27 billion.
The report also says Kalshi’s World Cup markets cover more than 33,000 event contracts, including match results, goal totals, group rankings and player performance.
Accuracy and calibration data
Based on the sample data cited in the report, market predictions one day before matches reached an accuracy rate of 85.7%, while probability calibration error came in at 1.96%.
Kalshi’s argument on sports risk pricing
Kalshi said that as the global sports economy is expected to grow from about $2.3 trillion today to $8.8 trillion by 2050, prediction markets may develop into a new pricing infrastructure connecting sports business, insurance and financial markets.
The company said sports risk has usually been managed through customized insurance products, but those products often have limited coverage and higher costs. Prediction markets, by contrast, can offer hedging tools for brand sponsors, advertisers and event organizers through tradable contracts tied to match outcomes, player performance and event delays.
Cost comparison with traditional insurance
Kalshi gave one example in the report: for a $10 million player performance bonus with a 5% probability of being triggered, traditional insurance would cost about $600,000 to $1 million, while hedging through a prediction market would cost about $500,000 to $510,000.