Trader Killa said the market has been drawing comparisons between Bitcoin’s current price action and the pullback that followed its rebound to $25,000 in 2023, but argued that the two setups are structurally different. According to Killa, BTC in 2023 only formed equal highs near $25,000 and failed to secure a close above that level before falling back quickly. In contrast, Bitcoin has now printed a higher high on the weekly timeframe and is consolidating above the prior high after the breakout. Killa also pointed to the scale of drawdowns across cycles, noting that the previous bear market saw a maximum decline of about 77%, compared with roughly 54% in the current one. Factoring in diminishing returns and progressively shallower pullbacks, he said the main correction in this bull market may be closer to 10% to 15%, which would imply levels near $78,000 and $74,000. He added that even if price follows a similar path, it may not break below the previous low as clearly as it did in 2023. With open interest already reset and price still holding above the earlier high, Killa said he views the current market structure as healthy and has not positioned for a deep correction, keeping his target in the $90,000 range.
ChainCatcher reported that trader Killa said the market has been widely comparing Bitcoin’s current move with the pullback that followed its rebound to $25,000 in 2023, but he sees clear structural differences between the two periods.
How Killa distinguishes the current setup from 2023
According to Killa, BTC in 2023 only formed equal highs near $25,000 and failed to close effectively above that level before dropping back quickly. This time, he said, Bitcoin has already formed a higher high on the weekly chart and is now trading sideways above the prior high after the breakout.
His view on the size of a possible correction
Killa said the previous bear market posted a maximum drawdown of about 77%, while the current cycle has seen about 54%. If diminishing returns and a gradual narrowing in retracement depth are taken into account, he said the main pullback in the current bull market may be closer to 10% to 15%, corresponding to roughly $78,000 and $74,000.
Positioning and price target
He added that even if price were to repeat a similar pattern, it would not necessarily break clearly below the previous low as it did in 2023. Killa also said open interest has already been reset, while price is still holding above the earlier high, which in his view points to a relatively healthy market structure.
Based on that assessment, he said he has not positioned for a major correction and continues to look toward the $90,000 area.
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