Anthropic is being repriced in private markets after Moonshot AI’s Kimi K3 launch. Stock Analysis, using secondary-market data from trading platform Hiive, estimated Anthropic’s implied valuation at about $838.6 billion, down 13.1% from the company’s $965 billion Series H valuation in May. The difference comes to roughly $126.4 billion.
Hiive data points to a lower valuation than Anthropic’s May financing round
According to Stock Analysis estimates based on Hiive transaction data, Anthropic’s implied valuation stood at about $838.6 billion as of July 29. That compares with the $965 billion valuation attached to its Series H round on May 28, putting the decline at 13.1% in roughly two months.
In dollar terms, that represents about $126.4 billion wiped from the company’s implied value relative to the May fundraising benchmark. The report said the private equity market is now repricing Anthropic.
Kimi K3 is described as the trigger for the revaluation
The article ties the move to Kimi K3 from Moonshot AI. The model has 2.8 trillion parameters, first appeared in mid-July, and was formally open-sourced on July 28. Within 30 minutes of that release, it climbed to No. 1 on Hugging Face’s trending list and ranked fourth on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index.
The report’s argument is straightforward: once an open-weight model starts matching the level associated with top closed systems in the US, the narrative used to justify trillion-dollar valuations becomes harder to sustain. That, in turn, pushes investors to reassess both the valuation and potential IPO scale of closed-model companies.
IG and Hiive are nearly $718.4 billion apart
Another venue showed an even larger swing. In IG’s pre-IPO market, Anthropic’s implied market value fell 7.31% after the Kimi K3 release, erasing about $232 billion. Over the same period, OpenAI lost about $160 billion on the same basis, bringing the combined decline for the two companies to roughly $392 billion.
Even after that move, IG still showed Anthropic at $1.557 trillion. At the same point in time, Hiive’s estimate was $838.6 billion. The spread between the two readings was $718.4 billion, nearly a full doubling.
The two markets are pricing different things
The report said the gap comes from the nature of the instruments being traded. Hiive matches actual private-share transactions, meaning the price is tied to real buyers and sellers exchanging pre-IPO equity. IG’s pre-IPO market, by contrast, reflects bets on what Anthropic could be worth when it eventually lists, making it closer to a prediction market.
Both markets are moving lower. The difference is that one reflects current transaction levels, while the other reflects expectations for a future listing.
The pullback looks smaller when set against Anthropic’s recent fundraising pace
The report also placed the decline in the context of Anthropic’s own financing timeline. The company was valued at $380 billion in its Series G round in February, then jumped to $965 billion in Series H in May, with only three and a half months between the two rounds.
Seen in that context, the latest drop looks more like a reset in private-market pricing than a break from a long stable valuation range.
Two valuation figures, two different yardsticks
Why did Kimi K3 affect Anthropic’s valuation?
The explanation given in the report is that Kimi K3 is an open-weight model whose performance is approaching that of top US closed models. If frontier-level capability becomes available for free, investors may revisit the assumptions behind the lofty valuations and IPO expectations attached to closed-model companies, and secondary-market prices may adjust lower.
Which number is Anthropic’s “real” valuation: $838.6 billion or $1.557 trillion?
The report said the two figures use different measures. The $838.6 billion figure comes from real private-share trades on Hiive, while the $1.557 trillion figure comes from IG’s pre-IPO market and reflects a bet on listing valuation. One captures where shares are changing hands now; the other captures what traders think the company might be worth later.