PANews published an opinion article by "Kanbudong de SOL" arguing that October 2026 sits near a key turning point: the fifth Kondratieff cycle, described as the information technology era, is approaching the end of its depression phase, while the recovery stage of a sixth cycle is drawing closer. The article identifies the core technologies of that next cycle as an energy revolution and artificial intelligence, then uses that framework to discuss how to position for the coming decade.
How the article maps the first five Kondratieff cycles
The piece says each of the five completed long-wave cycles corresponded to a major technological revolution.
- The first cycle ran from 1782 to 1845, with the UK in the lead and textiles plus the steam engine launching the first industrial revolution.
- The second ran from 1845 to 1892, again under UK leadership, with steel and railways pushing the cycle forward.
- The third covered 1892 to 1948, when leadership shifted from Europe to the US and electricity, heavy chemicals, and the internal combustion engine became the main drivers.
- The fourth ran from 1948 to 1991, led by the US, with automobiles and computers supporting postwar globalization.
- The fifth is described as a projected period from 1991 to 2035, still led by the US, with information technology and the internet reshaping the world.
The author argues that every move from depression to recovery in a Kondratieff cycle has required a major technological breakthrough. The examples listed in the article are the improvement of the steam engine and the rise of railways in the first cycle, generators, internal combustion engines, and incandescent lamps in the second, diesel-powered cars and electronic computers in the third, personal computers and the World Wide Web in the fourth, and information technology plus the internet in the fifth.
The author’s reading of the current stage
The article says the world has gone through a series of shocks in recent years, including the "mask" period, geopolitical conflict, and surging inflation. It presents those developments as fitting the typical features of a Kondratieff depression phase: low growth, alternating inflation and deflation, exhausted old growth engines, and a painful clearing process.
In the article’s framework, the fifth cycle began around 1991 and was driven by information technology. Its boom and decline are treated as established history. From the vantage point of 2026, the market is described as being in a gap between fading old forces and not-yet-mature new ones. The author says that is precisely why the period matters for long-term positioning.
The sixth cycle is tied to energy and AI
The article says the key lesson from the chart is that the move from depression to recovery is usually powered by new technologies capable of delivering a productivity revolution. On that basis, it describes the chart’s projected sixth Kondratieff cycle as spanning 2035 to 2080, with technological breakthroughs centered on an energy revolution and artificial intelligence.
Looking ahead from 2026 over the next decade, the author says the message from the long-wave framework is straightforward: the core force behind the shift from depression to recovery will be new technologies that can transform productivity.
Why the article calls 2026-2030 a dollar-cost averaging window
The author writes that this is not based on a forecast for market prices. Instead, it comes from reworking a personal 10-year dollar-cost averaging plan. The conclusion given in the piece is that the five years from 2026 to 2030 are the best accumulation window the author can see. Three reasons are listed in order of importance.
1. Position in the cycle
The article cites the late Zhou Jintao’s breakdown of the fifth information-technology Kondratieff cycle: recovery from 1982 to 1991, prosperity from 1991 to 2004, decline from 2004 to 2015, and depression from 2015 to 2025. It adds that Zhou died in 2016 and did not draw the sixth cycle, but says the consensus extrapolation in cycle research is that 2025-2026 marks the gear shift from depression to recovery.
The piece also stresses that a recovery phase is not the same as a prosperity phase. Its features are repeated bottoming, structural divergence, and the absence of a broad-based rise. The author argues that this can be punishing for market timers but favorable for dollar-cost averaging, because repeated swings can push the average entry cost lower.
2. The investment vehicle
The article says the technological carriers of the sixth cycle are AI, computing power, and the digital economy. It points to the Nasdaq-100’s constituents, naming NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, and Meta, and says the core assets of the sixth cycle are embedded in that index. It makes a similar point about the S&P 500, saying digital-economy companies account for an overwhelming share of its top 10 weights.
The author adds that both indexes are refreshed every December, bringing in the companies with the strongest earnings power and removing those that are no longer performing as well. On that basis, the article says the investor does not need to know which company will win this technological revolution. The only thing that matters, in the author’s view, is that whoever wins will most likely be in the Nasdaq-100.
3. Timing matters
The article says a Kondratieff cycle usually takes more than five years to move from recovery to prosperity. In that setup, someone who starts dollar-cost averaging in 2026 would have accumulated five years of lower-cost positions by the time a prosperity phase arrives around 2030. Someone entering only in 2030, by contrast, may be buying into prosperity-phase prices.
The author sums this up by saying that, within the same cycle, people who enter in the first five years and those who enter in the later five years end up with completely different cost structures. In that framing, the meaning of a "window" is not a single day. It is the set of years in which sowing has to come before harvest.
Bottom line in the article
Based on that reasoning, the author’s personal conclusion is that 2026-2030 is the best dollar-cost averaging window.