Regulated perpetual futures are nearing launch in the United States, and Kraken expects adoption to build in a pattern similar to spot bitcoin ETFs: sophisticated traders first, then broader institutional participation over time.
John Palmer, Kraken’s head of derivatives, said the earliest users are likely to be market participants already connected to exchanges and trading on a proprietary basis. Larger asset managers and investment advisers, by contrast, usually move more slowly because they must clear investment committee reviews, internal due diligence, and governance processes before adding a new product.
U.S. market prepares for regulated “true” perpetual futures
Perpetual futures are one of the dominant instruments in crypto derivatives trading. Unlike traditional futures, they do not expire, which means traders can keep leveraged positions open without rolling contracts from one month to the next. That structure has helped the product become central on offshore crypto venues such as Hyperliquid (HYPE), while U.S. access has remained limited for years because of regulatory restrictions.
Kraken recently expanded into the regulated U.S. derivatives market through its acquisitions of NinjaTrader and Bitnomial. Those deals gave the company access to futures commission merchant, exchange, and clearing licenses overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Kraken said it expects to launch perpetual futures on Kraken Pro in the coming weeks.
ETF comparison points to a slower second phase of adoption
Palmer compared the likely rollout to the adoption path seen after spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. Retail traders and sophisticated customers entered quickly, he said, while investment advisers and asset managers followed later after completing their own diligence and internal approvals. In his view, perpetual futures are likely to follow the same pattern.
The comparison hints at how much the U.S. crypto derivatives market could change over the next few years. Spot bitcoin ETFs opened a brokerage-account route for traditional investors seeking bitcoin exposure. Regulated perpetual futures could do something different but equally significant: give both retail and institutional traders access to one of crypto’s most widely used trading tools without relying on offshore venues.
Simplicity is a major part of the appeal
Palmer said one reason perpetual futures became so successful outside the U.S. is that the structure is easier to use than dated futures. A trader holding a June futures contract must deal with expiration and roll the position forward to maintain exposure. Perpetuals remove that step, which makes position management more straightforward for active market participants.
Kraken believes reducing that operational friction — and eventually allowing crypto assets to be used as collateral — could bring the U.S. trading experience closer to what users already see in international markets. For now, the company views the launch of regulated perpetuals as an opening stage. Palmer added that while global crypto derivatives generate trillions of dollars in annual volume, the U.S. market is still early in its development.
Other platforms are already testing demand. Prediction market platform Kalshi, which launched U.S. perpetual futures last week, said on Wednesday that its trading volume had already surpassed $1 billion.