Overview: Third Wave Decline Signals Final Bottom
JackYi, founder of Liquid Capital, posted on social media that Bitcoin is undergoing its third downward wave since October 11, 2025. According to wave theory and cyclical patterns, this is likely the last major drop in the current bear market. He emphasized that the bottom price range is primarily influenced by U.S. stock market trends and MicroStrategy's holdings, while the Fed's reaction to CPI data—whether it triggers rate cuts or even rate hike expectations—will determine the extent of a potential U.S. stock correction.
Price Projections and Technical Anchors
JackYi provided specific price calculations: based on Bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000, a 60% decline gives a target of $51,000, and a 66% decline gives $43,000. He views this as the ultimate bottom zone. The July-August period is identified as the key timing for this bottom formation, calling it 'the best time to buy the dip' and even 'the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years.'
Risk Factors and Macro Variables
While expressing optimism, JackYi also cautioned about potential risks. He compared previous bear market tails and noted that the typical black swan or blow-up event has not yet occurred, requiring close monitoring. At the macro level, the Fed's response to inflation data and its monetary policy path remain the biggest uncertainties. If rate hike expectations re-emerge, a sustained correction in U.S. stocks could put further pressure on Bitcoin prices. Investors should weigh these variables carefully before making entry decisions.