A market commentary published by Blockcast said Bitcoin is unlikely to post a V-shaped rebound over the next three days of weekend trading, with price action more likely to stay weak and range-bound.
The author said a scan of market-wide data still did not show an encouraging picture. Bitcoin rebounded from $80,300 to above $82,000, but the move was described as being driven mostly by short covering rather than meaningful new long positions. On that basis, the article said the odds of a fast recovery back to prior levels remain low.
Flows, transfers and whale activity were cited as pressure points
The piece said Bitcoin ETFs recorded $450 million in outflows the previous day and argued that institutions were leading the current correction.
It also said the U.S. government transferred 17,000 BTC to Coinbase. The author added that this does not necessarily mean the coins have been sold, but it could become a source of potential selling pressure.
Another data point mentioned in the article was a transfer of 4,500 BTC by a whale wallet that had been dormant for more than four years.
U.S. trading hours and rates were also part of the view
According to the commentary, much of the market's rise from July to September happened during U.S. stock market hours, but that session has now turned into a period associated with declines.
The author said the $83,000 to $84,000 range has become a new concentration zone for positions. Without a clear pickup in demand, the market would struggle in the short term to move back above that area.
On the macro side, the article cited a 30-year U.S. Treasury auction stop yield of 5.618%, the highest since 2000, and a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.54. In the author's view, that showed the market was accepting a high risk-free rate, a backdrop seen as unfavorable for non-yielding assets such as Bitcoin and gold.
Based on those factors, the commentary concluded that a V-shaped move over the weekend is unlikely and that weak consolidation is the more probable path.
The original article also said the views expressed were solely those of the author, were for reference only, and did not constitute investment advice.