Blockcast, citing the column "Madman on Trend," said September nonfarm payrolls came in well below expectations, with job growth at 29,000 versus a forecast of 90,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the release, the probability of an October rate hike reportedly fell to 16%, leading the column to argue that an October increase is now largely off the table.
The piece said markets initially rose on the data but later gave back those gains, matching the prior day’s expected path. It also noted that Treasury yields have remained elevated, leaving open the question of whether bonds or risk assets tied to equities and crypto will adjust first.
On flows, the article said spot ETF products recorded $100 million in inflows on Oct. 1. BlackRock accounted for $195 million in buying, while Fidelity and Grayscale saw outflows. The column described that pattern as resembling institutions stepping in while retail exits. Despite the volatility, the article maintained that the broader market remains in a bull-market phase and is still showing strength through sideways trading at high levels, with the next key macro date set as CPI data on the 14th.
Blockcast, citing the column "Madman on Trend," said September nonfarm payrolls missed expectations by a wide margin, with 29,000 jobs added against a forecast of 90,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. After the data was released, the probability of an October rate hike fell to 16%, and the column argued that an October hike is now basically off the table.
The article said that outcome matched the previous day’s expectation that policy would be shaped through the data. It also said market action followed the same pattern: prices moved higher first on the favorable data, then slipped back. The column added that Treasury yields have stayed high, and under those conditions, either bonds or assets tied to stocks and crypto would need to correct first.
ETF flow data
According to the article, ETF products saw $100 million in inflows on Oct. 1. BlackRock made up the bulk of that with $195 million in buying, while Fidelity, Grayscale and others posted outflows. The column described the picture as one in which institutions were coming in while retail investors were heading out.
Market view remains unchanged
The article said the broader market is still moving through a bull-market phase. In its view, a series of negative factors has not pushed the market lower. Instead, prices have risen, and after moving up, the market has chosen sideways trading rather than a pullback.
The next key date mentioned in the piece is CPI data due on the 14th. The column said that release is expected to further reinforce the case for no October rate hike. Its view did not change: the market is still showing strength and holding in a high-range consolidation.
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