PANews has published a market commentary by columnist Haotian arguing that this crypto cycle is no longer being driven by storylines and expectation trading in the way previous periods were. In his view, the market has moved decisively toward cash flow and proof of execution. He said that after in-depth discussions with several experienced on-chain participants, he and those contacts reached a broad consensus on what now matters most for survival in the current environment.
Tokens with real value capture come first
Haotian wrote that bull markets often reward narratives and future promises, while weaker conditions force investors to focus on actual cash generation and a verifiable record of buybacks or token burns. In that framework, he sees the strongest candidates this cycle as protocols that can keep generating fees and then return that value to token holders through buybacks, burns, or distributions.
As examples, the article points to launchpad-related tokens that have recently performed well, including $UNI, $PUMP, and $PONS, as well as $HYPE, which the author described as a leading buyback token for this cycle.
PMF and a working business loop matter more
The second rule in the piece is to focus only on projects that have already achieved PMF and formed a complete operating loop. Haotian said that, barring surprises, the next cycle’s main narratives are likely to remain tied to asset tokenization and the “Agentic Economy,” with related areas including Perps, prediction markets, stablecoins, and payments.
Under that logic, he expects market preference to shift from technology-led narrative expansion toward practical verification. Projects without real users, a real transaction loop, and real revenue, he wrote, are likely to be filtered out quickly. The article lists $ONDO, $VVV, and $VIRTUAL as examples in this bucket, while saying that assets under this theme should be judged by metrics such as actual AUM, trading volume, and fee-generation ability.
Cross-cycle consensus remains a key filter
Haotian also argued that after several crypto market cycles, one of the few factors that has consistently stood the test of time is market consensus. He made a distinction between consensus that forms naturally and lasts across cycles, and the kind of short-lived attention that comes from a reply to a social media post or from industrial-scale promotion.
In his telling, the more interesting assets are often older tokens that newcomers may not fully understand but that continue to maintain liquidity and stay alive through different market phases. He cited older cult meme tokens such as $DOGE, $PEPE, and $PEOPLE, along with category leaders like $ZEC and $TAO. According to the article, these assets have survived multiple bull and bear markets, built communities with organic staying power, and remained capable of attracting repeated trading interest.
Pure VC tokens face ongoing unlock pressure
The article takes a much harder line on pure VC-backed tokens. Haotian wrote that while there may still be debate around the claim that altcoins are dead, saying VC tokens are dead would draw far less disagreement in the current market.
He attributed that view to a familiar structure: high fully diluted valuation, low circulating supply, and continued large unlocks. In his assessment, those tokens often rely on airdrop expectations around TGE to create momentum. If the underlying project lacks a real value-capture mechanism, later growth can stall and post-unlock selling pressure becomes difficult to avoid.
Haotian said that this dynamic is one of the root causes behind what he described as a cycle in which the bull market has not become frenzied while down markets have remained deep, as large amounts of VC-held supply are still waiting to unlock.
Not investment advice
The piece ends with a disclaimer that the views are a summary of discussions between the author and friends, that the tokens mentioned are examples only, and that the article should not be treated as investment advice.