MarsBit publishes its weekly editor’s picks
MarsBit has released its Weekly Editor’s Picks for Oct. 24 to Oct. 30, pulling together articles it sees as more useful for judgment across macro developments, investing and startups, AI and storage, prediction markets, policy and stablecoins, CeFi and DeFi, and security.
Macro: U.S. midterms and Brazil’s election
In the macro section, one featured article looks at the U.S. midterm elections and how Donald Trump’s success or failure could affect crypto and U.S. equities. The piece says Trump’s approval rating is holding between 30% and 40%. It also notes that Democrats need only three more seats to take the House, while they need a net gain of four seats in the Senate.
The article lays out two scenarios. If Democrats win both chambers, crypto-related stocks and AI names could face pressure and choppy trading. If Republicans hold both chambers, CLARITY, major cryptocurrencies and crypto-linked equities could all see a sharp short-term rally.
The same section also includes Brazil’s presidential election. Brazil’s Superior Electoral Court confirmed Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s re-election. After trailing in the first round, Lula came back to beat former president’s son Flávio Bolsonaro by 51.79% to 48.21%, a margin of about 4.4 million votes.
The article says that since Brazil restored direct presidential elections in 1989, the first-round leader had never lost in the runoff. This break with historical precedent came alongside a 10% drop in the Ibovespa index after the open, which triggered a circuit breaker, and losses for many traders who had bet on Lula to lose in prediction markets.
MarsBit also lists another recommended read in this section: a piece on Bitchat, described as a new product from Twitter’s founder that can be used without internet access and has gained traction in France.
Investing and startups: Galaxy, trading bots and Arthur Hayes
In the investing and startup section, MarsBit highlights a client letter from Galaxy arguing that now is the best time to buy Bitcoin. Galaxy’s view is that the bear market ended in June this year and that Bitcoin is now in an accumulation phase, a setup it says has appeared before previous rallies.
The article cites several reasons. On the technical side, the 200-week moving average has provided support, while the 50-week moving average has been reclaimed for five straight weeks. On positioning, short-term selling pressure has largely faded, and basis traders and macro speculators have cut their ETF and futures positions by more than half. On fundamentals, the U.S. is facing a $2 trillion fiscal deficit, Treasury yields are around 5%, and the risk of currency debasement is rising. On sentiment, the market has shifted for a third time toward “blockchain, not Bitcoin,” and the previous two shifts of that kind both happened near market bottoms.
Based on that mix, Galaxy says this is a good time to buy and hold Bitcoin. The article also lists the conditions that would challenge that thesis:
- A weekly close below the 50-week moving average, identified as $76,540, without a recovery within one month.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF holdings falling below the July 13 low of 1.22 million BTC.
- A clear and time-bound path emerging toward a quantum computer capable of breaking cryptography.
- The U.S. adopting fiscal tightening.
Another featured article asks whether Grok Bot can really make money automatically and says the first step is understanding the loss traps built into three types of bots: gambler-style, market-maker-style and tracking bots.
The gambler-style bot’s main weakness is that it tends to increase position size after profitable trades. If several wrong calls follow, losses can become large very quickly. The article says each trade should be sized as a fixed percentage of total account equity and should never be adjusted based on the result of the previous trade.
The market-maker-style bot faces a different problem. If trading volume dries up, the cost of issuing a token can exceed fee income. The article says such a system should neither hold nor sell its own issued token, and revenue should come only from fees.
The tracking bot’s core risk is copy-trade delay. Even if it follows the right wallet, it can still buy at the wrong price. The article says a maximum chase limit is necessary.
It also lists four common mistakes in bot trading: comparing returns without comparing failure modes, trusting a single run, operating the system too close to its limits, and treating risk control as just another setting.
MarsBit also includes a piece on Arthur Hayes. It says that when Hayes was bullish on tokens such as ENA and UNI, his language often centered on “cash flow,” “value capture,” “high-quality DeFi infrastructure” and “high-beta assets.” When selling, though, he reduced them to “shitcoins.”
His latest bearish case is that the macro and geopolitical backdrop looks tricky and that the market may need to fall first before the next leg higher. The article’s takeaway is simple: don’t focus only on what he says; check what his wallet is doing on-chain.
AI and storage: Anthropic’s IPO and the Agent economy
In AI and storage, one article asks why Anthropic urgently needs an IPO. Its argument is that private fundraising is no longer enough to support the AI company and that tapping the deep liquidity of public markets is the best way to fund the next stage of the AI arms race.
The same piece says an IPO is also the clearest way to let the market test the current AI boom.
Another article looks at automated Agent trading and the rise of an on-chain Agent economy. MarsBit says Binance recently launched Agentic Wallet, which quickly drew follow-up activity from on-chain ecosystem assets and issuance platforms. Agent ID claims tied to Agentic Wallet have now passed 100,000, and a series of launchpad moves in the BSC ecosystem is described as the real start of the trend.
The article also warns that the growth of the AI Agent economy comes with security risks, including AI phishing attacks and AI-linked risk assets. Users taking part in on-chain trading through AI Agents are advised to set clear permission boundaries and asset caps to reduce the chance of losses.
MarsBit adds another recommended read here: a piece titled “Buy Anthropic IPO, get unemployment and the apocalypse.”
Prediction markets: Tiger Research on practical value
In the prediction market section, MarsBit features a report from Tiger Research arguing that prediction markets are fundamentally a high-value source of data, not just venues for betting.
The article gives three reasons. First, real money gives participants genuine skin in the game. Second, market prices change in real time as events develop, producing highly time-sensitive dynamic data. Third, outcomes can be objectively verified after the fact.
Because of those features, the report says prediction market data can be used in elections, macroeconomics, public health and corporate intelligence.
For the sector’s next stage, the article points to three areas of work: improving mechanism design to reduce price distortion and eliminate market manipulation, carrying out practical government relations work to reshape regulators’ assumptions about prediction markets, and maintaining transparent end-to-end data disclosure to support a healthy independent third-party research ecosystem.
Policy and stablecoins: SEC innovation exemption and TSV filings
In policy and stablecoins, MarsBit highlights the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s innovation exemption order, Release No. 34-106402, which is valid for five years. The article says the order formally creates a legal path for tokenized U.S. stock trading.
Three companies have already notified the SEC that they plan to operate TSVs under the exemption: TSV LLC, filed on Sept. 23; OKXICE, filed on Oct. 4; and Kephas Corp., filed on Oct. 14 and operating under the name Perpetuals.com.
The SEC also said that appearing on the list does not mean any of the three has already met the exemption requirements.
The article says resistance will not come only from issuers. A larger source of uncertainty lies on the traditional market side. Nasdaq has separately said it will not allow its stocks to be tokenized under this framework because TSVs do not display the best price in real time and do not report trades to the consolidated tape system.
MarsBit also recommends a separate article on who makes money from digital dollars, focusing on profit sharing among stablecoin issuers, distributors and payment providers.
CeFi and DeFi: Hyperliquid, Uniswap v4 and PBIT
In CeFi and DeFi, one article examines a spoofing case on Hyperliquid. According to the summary, someone placed a large crude oil sell order on Hyperliquid, making it look like a dump was coming, while buying on the other side. Once the trades were done, the sell orders were pulled.
The article defines spoofing as placing large visible orders to influence others while hiding the real trade on the opposite side. A sell wall can pressure the market while buy orders quietly absorb inventory.
It notes that U.S. futures markets already ban this kind of conduct. The legal question is whether the trader intended, at the time of placing the order, to cancel it just before execution in order to mislead the market.
The article adds that the asset a manipulator really wants to sell may not even be in the same market. During low-liquidity weekends, large players often use BTC spoofing to push Bitcoin up slowly, then rely on algorithms to lift altcoins and help them exit positions.
Centralized exchanges already monitor this behavior, and traders continue to discuss how to identify it. Hyperliquid differs from centralized venues in one important way: orders, cancellations and executions are all publicly recorded.
Another featured piece looks at Uniswap v4 aggregator Hooks. MarsBit says Uniswap v4 is trying to capture fees generated by liquidity it does not own through aggregator Hooks, strengthening the UNI burn flywheel. That would also move Uniswap closer to becoming an on-chain liquidity gateway, shifting from providing liquidity to distributing liquidity.
The article says the key question for UNI value capture is whether Uniswap v4 aggregator Hooks will turn on fee switches for high-traffic external pools.
The section also lists other reads, including a piece on BlackRock’s PBIT and another on airdrop opportunities and interaction guides, including Bullshot’s points system and infiniFi’s deposit-for-points campaign dated Oct. 29.
Security and the week’s headline list
In security, MarsBit includes an article titled “Coinbase urgently denies rumors: four leaks in one day, is AI destroying crypto security?”
The package closes with a broad list of weekly headlines spanning policy and macro markets, commentary, institutions and major projects, and security.
Policy and macro markets
- Binance was hacked for $6.3 billion.
- Brazil stock index futures plunged 15% and hit a limit-down level as Lula won the presidential election.
- Anthropic publicly filed for a Nasdaq IPO and plans to list under the ticker ANT.
- Microsoft placed 60,000 employees on a voluntary departure list.
- Microsoft launched its first high-grade U.S. dollar bond sale since 2017 and plans to raise at least $25 billion.
- SK Hynix shares jumped 10% after revenue topped KRW 100 trillion for the first time.
- Unitree’s share price briefly moved back above 700 yuan.
- Utah charged Kalshi and its founder with 14 felony counts tied to sting-style betting.
Views and commentary
- U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent said crypto is the next tool for maintaining dollar dominance.
- Elon Musk said a bloodbath is coming for “new cloud” and that he will not acquire troubled new cloud service providers.
- CZ said this is the best era for entrepreneurship and that becoming a stable cog is the most dangerous illusion.
- CZ responded to BNB Chain’s new L1 plan by saying: many chains, one coin.
- Arthur Hayes said he has fully exited ETH, ENA and UNI and expects the market to fall first and rise later.
Institutions, large companies and major projects
- Strategy shareholders approved a daily dividend proposal with 99.3% support.
- Hyperliquid partnered with Payward, Kraken’s parent company, to bring a next-generation perpetual futures market to the U.S.
- Shaw publicly reverse-engineered the Pump.fun contract.
Security
- Three South Korean financial institutions, including Bithumb, were hit by hackers, exposing data from more than 38,000 customers.
- A flash loan captured two governance seats, and X100 was hacked.
The article ends by linking to the broader Weekly Editor’s Picks series and signing off until the next edition.
