MarsBit has published its Weekly Editor’s Picks for July 25-31, pulling together articles on macro conditions, regulation, investing, AI infrastructure, Ethereum staking, CeFi and DeFi, and security.
Macro
A Fed meeting framed as unusually uncertain
The roundup says the latest Federal Reserve meeting stood out as one of the most uncertain in recent years. Softer-than-expected June CPI, weaker nonfarm payrolls, and a pullback in oil prices before the meeting all gave the central bank room to wait. At the same time, inflation remained above target, Middle East tensions and oil prices were still prone to reversals, some Fed officials had sounded hawkish in recent comments, and Chair Waller had yet to build a clear policy record.
That combination, the article argues, meant markets could not fully rule out a rate hike. It adds that investors had already paid for that risk.
Investing and entrepreneurship
A long-term view on crypto after 13 years of bull and bear cycles
One featured piece, attributed to the founder of Real Vision, argues that crypto is a long game and one that tests investors psychologically. The eventual winners are not necessarily those with the strongest short-term trading skill, but those who understand the assets they hold, remain convinced that network adoption is still spreading, and can live through 50% drawdowns that return every few years.
The argument is straightforward: extend the time horizon, strip out market noise, and hold both “digital vault” exposure through Bitcoin and “economic base-layer rails” through high-quality smart contract chains, instead of trying to beat every cycle.
A Bitcoin buying framework anchored at $64,000
Another article in the selection describes a static, rules-based investment system for Bitcoin. In that framework, $64,000 serves as the reference point, and the lower the score, the more the strategy buys.
Global equities are starting to look more like crypto
A separate piece says narratives are overpowering valuation, leverage is magnifying sentiment, and social media is driving consensus to extremes faster than before. In that reading, global equity markets, especially technology stocks, are becoming more like crypto markets.
The SpaceX “insider” story under challenge
The roundup also includes a piece on commercial space. Multiple mainstream media outlets, including Bloomberg, had reported that SpaceX would gradually phase out Falcon 9 and shift its full focus to Starship.
Yatharth Mann later posted on social media that the supposed “SpaceX insider” cited in those reports did not exist and that he himself had fabricated the leak. MarsBit notes that Mann’s claim has not been publicly confirmed by the outlets involved, and the media organizations named had not issued public responses.
Prediction markets and perp DEXs struggle to reproduce their edge elsewhere
On crossover attempts between prediction markets and perpetual futures exchanges, the roundup cites several figures. Hyperliquid’s active prediction markets fell from 125 to fewer than 20. Polymarket’s daily perpetual futures volume was under $20 million. Kalshi Perps posted $16.1 billion in volume over its first six weeks, but activity has recently cooled.
The takeaway is that user habits and liquidity built up over time in a platform’s original niche are hard to copy into adjacent markets. The article says the real contest behind the idea of an “Everything Exchange” may not be who lists the most categories, but who keeps compounding users, liquidity, and market depth in a core lane.
Why token prices may lag protocol revenue growth
Another featured analysis looks at six crypto protocols and asks why rising revenue has not translated into stronger token prices. The answer given is that protocols do not all capture value for tokens in the same way. Even when they do, price may still fail to respond because unlocked insider holdings, negative headlines, incentives, project-level sentiment, and competition can all create enough sell pressure.
The conclusion is blunt: a good protocol is not automatically a good token. Holders need to examine revenue, distribution, and token unlock dynamics together.
MarsBit also listed other recommended reads, including articles on Microsoft’s post-earnings stock move, Coinbase’s valuation debate after Q2 results, seven circuit breakers in South Korea’s stock market this year, exchange shutdowns at BitMEX and Bitmart, and crypto companies that still failed despite raising tens of millions.
AI and storage
Credit markets are pricing AI debt risk
One article says credit markets have already started pricing the risks tied to AI cloud infrastructure expansion. Guarantee structures and partnership frameworks can lock in future demand, but they can also feed customer financing risk back to Nvidia.
China’s chip industry and storage-market pricing
Another piece argues that the rise of China’s related chip industries is beginning to reshape the pricing logic of the global memory market at a more fundamental level.
A sudden scare in storage stocks
The roundup describes the selloff in memory names as a disconnect between fundamentals and expectations. It says capital markets are already looking ahead and pricing the possibility of oversupply in 2027. Under the scenario cited from Michael Burry, the real test for the sector comes in the second half of 2027 through 2028, when new Korean fabs are expected to begin mass production.
Two relatively rational responses are mentioned: hedge existing positions, or rotate into other names such as Apple and Google.
AI spending keeps climbing while market patience narrows
On AI capital spending, the selection says visibility beyond 2027 remains limited, while investors are demanding more spending discipline. That combination could keep risk appetite under pressure. Bulls argue the demand is real and that supply, not demand, is the constraint. Bears focus on the lack of visibility on returns.
Why SK Hynix’s most profitable quarter still disappointed
The SK Hynix discussion says the market is not only asking how much the company made in the second quarter. The larger question is how future growth should be repriced. Bulls are betting that AI infrastructure expansion still has room to run. Bears argue that the market has already pulled future growth forward into current valuations.
The article says that once the market has embraced a company’s growth story, strong results alone are not enough. A sector leader such as SK Hynix also inherits the pressure of having to beat a higher bar.
MarsBit separately recommends another piece on reassessing compute-demand fundamentals after semiconductor stocks fell 40%.
Policy and stablecoins
The Clarity Act remains stuck near the finish line
On US crypto legislation, the roundup says the Clarity Act has reached the final “one-yard line,” but that last step may be the hardest. Because time is short and Democratic lawmakers involved in negotiations strongly oppose the current wording of the ethics provisions, the estimated probability of the bill landing in 2026 was cut to 30%.
The biggest unresolved dispute, according to the selected article, still centers on the ethics language that had previously been read as an area where Donald Trump and Republicans might be willing to compromise. The bill must also compete for limited Senate floor time with a Russia sanctions bill, budget legislation, the SAVE Act, and other contested measures.
What if the bill fails?
Another featured piece looks at the consequences if the CLARITY Act does not pass. For the crypto market, analysts cited in the article broadly see limited impact and say much of it has already been priced in. The failure could hurt Coinbase, while potentially being positive for Circle’s longer-term price. In Washington, the implication would be that the next attempt at legislation becomes much harder.
CeFi and DeFi
TradeXYZ’s pricing comes close to traditional broker estimates
The roundup says Changxin Technology’s listing offered the first clear confirmation of TradeXYZ’s pricing accuracy in A-shares. Its pricing error versus traditional brokers was under $0.2, though the stock still traded at a discount after the open.
What money is betting on in ONDO
One article notes that ONDO rose 30% in three weeks and ties that move to the recent tokenized-equity theme onchain. Many of the US equity contracts on Hyperliquid are sourced from Ondo. After taking 70% of the upstream market, the project has started pushing further down the stack by using Ondo-issued tokenized stocks directly as collateral.
Even so, the piece says weak conditions across the broader crypto market make it difficult for short-term catalysts to become a durable, structural driver of ONDO’s price. For now, it is framed more as event trading and capital rotation.
Airdrop opportunities and user guides
The section also points readers to a list of interactive tasks, including an “airdrop farming” style mission tied to Axis Robotics and an Orbinum testnet walkthrough dated July 30.
Ethereum and scaling
Lido is moving more than 8 million ETH
In the Ethereum section, MarsBit highlights the structural changes in staking after Pectra. Lido is migrating more than 8 million ETH, worth about $16 billion, from hundreds of thousands of traditional validators backing stETH into the new validator architecture introduced after the upgrade.
The article makes clear what this migration will not do. It will not directly reduce gas fees for regular users, and it will not suddenly speed up transaction confirmation. Lido estimates that the temporary reward loss during migration will amount to about 0.28% of the protocol’s annual staking rewards.
What compounding validators do offer is the ability to put fragmented ETH back into native staking. That means more capital can be managed more efficiently with fewer validators.
Why ETH has remained weak
Another featured article says the disconnect between ETH price action and fundamentals has a plain explanation: a growing number of investors no longer have a clear view of how ETH’s value accrues.
New ecosystems
Pons tops Robinhood Chain issuance and trading
In the new-ecosystem section, MarsBit says platform token Pons surged 15x in half a month and ranked first on Robinhood Chain in both token issuance and trading.
Security
A deep review of Poolin’s bankruptcy
The security section includes a detailed review of Poolin’s collapse, centered on a $163 million IOU crisis. The article argues that platform wallets should not be treated as equivalent to professional custody, and it warns users not to mistake ordinary exchange wallets or yield accounts for dedicated asset safekeeping.
Weekly headlines recap
Policy and macro markets
- The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged.
- With MiCA now in force, Europe’s crypto industry is facing a sharp reshuffle, and higher compliance barriers may trigger a new wave of consolidation.
- South Korea’s pension fund turned into a net buyer of KOSPI stocks for the first time this year, with heavy exposure to SK Hynix.
- Changxin Technology set multiple A-share records in its first hour of trading.
Views and public comments
- Dan Bin said investors should dare to buy into a major selloff and that he had deployed the rest of his cash.
- Sam Altman said in a new interview that he is not worried about open-source distillation and that OpenAI will “shock the world” in the next 12 months.
- Tom Lee rejected the view that Ethereum is being hollowed out by layer-2 networks, saying ETH is the currency of the chain.
- The founder of MSX said that if it acquires Bitmart, it would push spot crypto-to-crypto and derivatives trading fees to zero.
Institutions, large companies, and major projects
- Samsung and SK Hynix are set to announce large AI chip deals with US technology giants.
- After the fall of Wall Street’s so-called AI stock star, Citatdel moved to acquire the entire position.
- Metaplanet is still borrowing to buy crypto and has launched its first Bitbonds sale in Japan with a 4% annual yield.
- The Trump administration has accumulated nearly $27 billion in corporate equity holdings, with Intel representing the largest position.
- Apple became the second company to top a $5 trillion market capitalization.
- SpaceX fell 20% from its issuance price, and its market value is down $1.2 trillion from its peak.
- The five largest Korean financial groups posted more than KRW 13 trillion in first-half net profit, with brokerage operations acting as the biggest growth driver.
Security and market operations
- A Hyperliquid co-founder responded to abnormal SK Hynix pricing, saying the relevant contracts were deployed and operated by the Trade.xyz team and that the cause was under investigation.
- Trade.xyz has completed part of the compensation distribution tied to the abnormal liquidation event in its SK Hynix contracts.
The weekly column ends with links to the broader Editor’s Picks series and a signoff until the next edition.