Marvell Technology used its investor day to lay out a FY31 target of more than $30 in non-GAAP earnings per share and a revenue framework of $70 billion to $90 billion. In a report dated Oct. 7, 2026, Morgan Stanley said that outlook was at least 20% above its previous forecast, raised its price target to $300 from $268, and kept its Equal-weight rating.
The bank said the FY31 framework is built on existing customers, products and design wins rather than a single socket. At the same time, it said the setup assumes data center capital spending reaches $3 trillion by 2030.
FY31 framework came in above Morgan Stanley's prior path
At the midpoint, Marvell's data center revenue framework stands at $77.5 billion, spanning interconnect, custom, switching and storage. Morgan Stanley said it had previously expected Marvell might present a FY30 revenue target above $40 billion in its preview note, and that the new framework runs ahead of that trajectory. The incremental upside, in its view, comes mainly from interconnect and custom.
Marvell lifted FY28 revenue guidance to $20 billion from $18 billion, while leaving FY27 at about $12 billion. Morgan Stanley said the FY31 framework implies a revenue growth assumption of 55% to 70% on a compound annual basis.
The bank also mapped the outlook to a CY30 total addressable market of about $400 billion. That breaks down into $65 billion for interconnect, $85 billion for switching and storage, $235 billion for custom, and $15 billion for communications and other. At the midpoint, Morgan Stanley said Marvell would be capturing about 20% of its addressable data center TAM.
Connectivity was the clearest theme at investor day
Morgan Stanley said connectivity was the clearest takeaway from the event and the main reason behind the higher FY28 revenue outlook. Management said the additional $2 billion comes from continued strength in scale-out optics, a broader scale-up optics opportunity, and switching.
Scale-up optics is still largely a greenfield business with almost no revenue today, according to the report. Management said it should start contributing several hundred million dollars next year, with a steeper ramp after that. Scale-out switching is expected to be well above $1 billion next year.
Marvell also disclosed that it is developing switches for the UALink accelerator interconnect standard and that those products are being deployed at a leading hyperscaler. Morgan Stanley said this was the first time the company had publicly discussed that socket.
The bank added that the Trainium 4 opportunity still appears to favor Astera Labs, though it said the market is large enough for both companies to win meaningful sockets. Morgan Stanley said it is watching Marvell's UALink progress closely.
Scale-up accounts for about 85% of current data center traffic, the report said, and the shift from copper to integrated optics is central to that opportunity. Marvell's portfolio covers digital signal processors, transimpedance amplifiers and drivers, near-packaged optics, and co-packaged optics. Morgan Stanley said optical content can reach several thousand dollars per XPU across both custom accelerators and switching, and described Marvell's breadth across the optical stack as a key differentiator.
Custom upside was tied to Google-related opportunity
Marvell raised its FY29 custom revenue target to more than $12 billion from more than $10 billion. It expects that business to grow more than threefold from FY28 to FY31, reaching about $30 billion in FY31. Morgan Stanley said existing XPU programs remain on track and that more of the growth is now expected to come from XPU attach opportunities, including networking cards, memory, storage, infrastructure management and inference acceleration.
Management identified inference acceleration as a new opportunity. The report described it as dedicated accelerators attached to XPUs to offload specific workloads. Morgan Stanley said it believes that opportunity may be tied to Google, though management did not comment on any specific customer. The bank said it assumes current XPU programs include Maia and other ongoing engagements.
On the Google agreement, management said the FY31 forecast assumes a reasonable portion of the opportunity and does not use the full warrant framework. Morgan Stanley said upside could be meaningful if utilization ultimately approaches maximum potential, and it identified Google as one of the main drivers behind the higher custom outlook.
Morgan Stanley lifted estimates but kept an Equal-weight rating
The bank revised its FY28 forecasts to $20.3 billion in revenue, 57.7% gross margin and $7.76 in EPS, up from prior estimates of $18 billion, 57.9% and $6.68. For FY29, it now models $35.9 billion in revenue, 57.5% gross margin and $14.32 in EPS, versus previous estimates of $24.1 billion, 57.9% and $9.58.
For FY30, Morgan Stanley forecasts $53.6 billion in revenue, 57.5% gross margin and $21.55 in EPS. Its $300 price target is based on 46x CY27e ModelWare EPS of $6.54. The valuation multiple was cut to 46x from 49x, while the prior framework used $5.47 in EPS.
Morgan Stanley said it preferred owning Marvell ahead of the analyst day and continuing to hold after the event, but it also said the growth path now leaves the company with a higher hurdle every quarter. The report argued that when several companies all have strong four-year growth outlooks, those that provide long-range guidance face a higher bar than those that do not. It said Marvell and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have given long-term guidance, while NVIDIA and Broadcom have not.
In its scenario analysis, Morgan Stanley set a bull case of $480 based on 60x CY27e ModelWare EPS of $7.46, a base case of $300 based on 46x CY27e ModelWare EPS of $6.54, and a bear case of $172 based on 30x CY27e ModelWare EPS of $5.73. The report listed the current share price at $287.01, close to the base-case target.
The bank's final point was that Marvell is effectively betting on $3 trillion in 2030 data center capex while relying on existing customers, products and design wins to support the FY31 framework. If that path holds, $80 billion in revenue is achievable. The tradeoff, Morgan Stanley said, is that the quarterly execution bar is now materially higher.
This article is based on a整理 and interpretation by Chaoxiang Research of a Morgan Stanley report dated Oct. 7, 2026, together with public market information. The ratings, price target, earnings forecasts and related views cited here are those of the brokerage analyst and represent the institution's position, not Chaoxiang Research, and do not constitute investment advice.
Markets carry risk, and investment decisions should be made independently. This article should not be used as the basis for buying or selling any security.