Metrics Ventures, a secondary-market crypto fund, published a market note covering July and August and said it widened the usual monthly window because Warsh’s remarks in July were too important to ignore.
The firm said that by the time this report was issued, bond markets had already priced in what it described as Warsh’s failings through sharply steepening spreads. In its view, the dollar’s problems are no longer something a single Federal Reserve chair can change or solve, and the path ahead is likely to feature repeated bouts of disruption.
Equities, bonds and FX are reading credit risk differently
From a market standpoint, Metrics Ventures said U.S. equities and bonds continue to treat credit risk in very different ways. Stocks, it wrote, resumed their earlier posture of faith after a targeted clearing of some leverage. Bond and foreign-exchange markets, by contrast, are still delivering what the report called a harsh verdict of distrust. Gold and silver finding their bottoms earlier also offered what the firm sees as a relatively clear central-bank consensus: in an era of competing weak Western currencies, verbal messaging no longer changes the broader trend.
On that basis, Metrics Ventures said it is not worried that the U.S. equity bubble will break further in the short term. Its attention is more focused on how the liquidity release represented by FIMA develops from here.
Q3 and Q4 outlook favors constrained resources and gold
Looking ahead, the firm said it still favors globally supply-constrained resources in Q3 and Q4, naming copper and power, and also continues to back gold as an asset that prices the ongoing erosion of trust in money. Its stance on digital assets was more reserved. Metrics Ventures said it will be difficult for the crypto market to generate large excess returns before oversized liquidity injections and the marginal growth slowdown in AI are fully priced in.
Three market calls from the report
The report highlighted three main views on broader market moves:
- Gold and other resource-linked commodities should still absorb liquidity ahead of Bitcoin, and the consolidation of recent months has been constructive.
- The bull trend in renminbi-denominated assets remains intact, and the firm said investors should not be overly doubtful, citing the STAR 50 as a core example in the current move.
- It is not only spot copper that reached new highs first; equity indexes and currencies in key resource-producing countries are also nearing the end of a directional decision phase.
Taking current moves in foreign exchange and bond markets together, Metrics Ventures said it leans toward the view that resource equities, including gold and silver names, have reached the late stage of this consolidation. The report added that even after a rebound, valuations in some assets would still amount to what it described as a generous free call option on metal prices. With AI marginal growth set to slow, in its view, some nonferrous assets in the renminbi market deserve attention.
Macro focus falls on FX intervention and use of FIMA
At the macro level, the firm said it is paying special attention to the latest joint U.S.-Japan foreign-exchange intervention and to how interactions between Warsh and Bessent may help indicate future Federal Reserve behavior. Metrics Ventures argued that the Treasury’s direct use of tools such as FIMA to act beyond the FOMC in service of top leadership appears, in its words, to be the practical course now being taken.
The note ended by saying that, on a three-year horizon, going long nonferrous resources is also a strong candidate for a strategy with meaningfully positive expected value.