Microsoft cites Daron Acemoglu's view that AI may add only about 1.5% to global GDP over the next decade

Microsoft cites Daron Acemoglu's view that AI may add only about 1.5% to global GDP over the next decade

N
News Editor
2026-10-06 17:45:10
Microsoft has shared a cautious outlook on artificial intelligence from Nobel economics laureate Daron Acemoglu. In that view, AI would lift global GDP by only about 1.5% over the next 10 years, a modest effect compared with many of the more aggressive projections often attached to the technology. Acemoglu also said AI would replace at most 5% of jobs over the same period, pointing to a limited labor-market impact rather than a sweeping disruption. He also argued that simply building larger models will not produce a meaningful shift on its own. The central problem, according to the summary cited by Techub News, is the lack of practical applications that can actually change how work gets done. The report attributes the remarks to The Decoder. The item was published by Techub as a brief and presents Acemoglu's assessment as a notably skeptical take on AI's economic effect.

Microsoft has published a cautious AI outlook from Nobel economics laureate Daron Acemoglu, according to Techub News.

Acemoglu estimates that AI will raise global GDP by about 1.5% over the next decade.

He also said AI would replace at most 5% of jobs.

In his view, larger models will not bring a material change on their own. The key issue is the lack of practical applications that can change how people work.

The item cited The Decoder as the source.

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